复杂网络下雨洪灾害链风险分析及断链减灾研究  

Risk analysis of rainstorm flood disaster chain and research on disaster mitigation of broken chain under complex network

作　　者：李磊 马梦格[1,2] 折亚亚 王雨秋 房子豪 王帆 LI Lei;MA Mengge;SHE Yaya;WANG Yuqiu;FANG Zihao;WANG Fan(School of Safety Science and Engineering,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an Shaanxi 710054,China;Key Laboratory of Western Mine Exploration and Hazard Prevention,Xi'an Shaanxi 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]西安科技大学安全科学与工程学院,陕西西安710054 [2]西部矿井开采及灾害防治教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2023年第12期192-197,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(52074214);陕西省重点研发计划项目(2023YBSF190);西安市科技计划项目(21SFSF0010)。

摘　　要：为提高雨洪灾害突发事件的应急处置和灾害救援能力,在复杂网络视角下分析雨洪灾害链风险,通过案例分析,统计雨洪灾害的次生衍生灾害事件和相互关系,构建雨洪灾害链网络拓扑结构;建立雨洪灾害风险评价模型,计算得出灾害网络的节点重要度、边的脆弱度和灾害链的风险度。结果表明:“暴雨-滑坡-基础设施损坏”和“暴雨-滑坡-道路桥梁摧毁-交通瘫痪”这2条链是雨洪灾害防治的重点。在雨洪灾害发生前管控重要节点,并在雨洪灾害发生后对风险度较高的边及时截断,可有效防止雨洪灾害次生衍生事件的发生和蔓延。In order to improve the emergency response and disaster rescue capability of rain and flood disasters,the risk analysis on the rain and flood disaster chain under complex networks was conducted in this study.The secondary derivative disaster events and interrelationships of rain and flood disaster were counted and the network topology structure of the rain and flood disaster chain was constructed.The rain and flood disaster risk assessment model was established,and the node importance degree,the edge vulnerability degree and the risk degree of disaster chain were calculated.The results show that the two chains of"rainstorm-landslide-infrastructure damage"and"rainstorm-landslide-road-bridge destruction-traffic paralysis"are the key points in the prevention and control of rain and flood damage.Controlling important nodes before the occurrence of rain and flood disasters,and cutting off the edge with high risk in time after the occurrence of rain and flood disasters can effectively prevent the occurrence and spread of secondary derivative events of rain and flood disasters.

关 键 词：复杂网络 雨洪灾害 灾害链 风险度 节点重要度 

分 类 号：X915.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学]