Trade Destruction and Trade Deflection:A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on the US Additional Tariffs  

作　　者：ZHANG Yu GAO Xiang XU Ran YANG Cuihong 

机构地区：[1]Yangtze Industrial Economic Institute,Nanjing University,Nanjing,210093,China [2]Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,100190,China [3]School of Management Engineering,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao,266520,China

出　　处：《Journal of Systems Science & Complexity》2023年第6期2467-2496,共30页系统科学与复杂性学报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.72103184,71988101,71673269;the Major Project of National Social Science Foundation of China under Grant No.19ZDA062;the Major Project of the Key Research Base for Humanities and Social Sciences of the Ministry of Education under Grant No.22JJD790033。

摘　　要：This paper adopts the DID approach to investigate the trade destruction effects and trade deflection effects of the US additional tariffs.The authors find that the US additional tariffs significantly reduce China's exports of tariffed products to the US(i.e.,trade destruction effect),especially intermediate and labor-intensive products.On the other hand,they significantly increase China's exports of tariffed products to the third market(i.e.,trade deflection effect).For the$50 billion list,both the trade destruction effect and trade deflection effect are concentrated on processing exports,and the US additional tariffs significantly increase China's exports of tariffed products to ASEAN,Japan and Australia.For the$200 billion list,the US additional tariffs boost China's exports of chemicals,textiles,wood,metal products,furniture and other products to the EU,Australia,Japan,South Africa and Hong Kong,China.Furthermore,most trade deflections are not realized by lowering export prices,indicating that the trade deflections could compensate for the profit losses caused by the US additional tariffs to a certain extent.The proposed results suggest that searching for substitutions of export markets and a more open trade policy is an important way to avoid profit losses and reduce risks for enterprises and economies suffering from trade frictions.

关 键 词：DID approach trade deflection trade destruction US additional tariffs 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易] F757.12[经济管理—产业经济]