塔里木河“四源”洪水演变规律及成因分析  

Evolution law and causes of floods in the four sources streams of Tarim River

作　　者：邬晓丹 罗敏 孟凡浩 萨楚拉[1,2] 董金义 刘铁 WU Xiaodan;LUO Min;MENG Fanhao;SA Chula;DONG Jinyi;LIU Tie(College of Geographical Science,Inner Mongolia Normal University,Hohhot 010022,Inner Mongolia,China;Inner Mongolia Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing&Geography Information System,Hohhot 010022,Inner Mongolia,China;Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古师范大学地理科学学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010022 [2]内蒙古自治区遥感与地理信息系统重点实验室,内蒙古呼和浩特010022 [3]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2024年第1期15-27,共13页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42101030,42361024,42261079);内蒙古高校青年科技英才(NJYT22027,NJYT23019);第三次新疆综合科学考察(2021xjkk1400);内蒙古师范大学研究生科研创新基金(CXJJS22132);内蒙古师范大学基本科研业务费专项资金(2022JBXC017)资助。

摘　　要：基于1981—2020年塔里木河流域“四源”5个水文站的日径流数据及格网温度、降水和雪深等数据,采用最大值及POT采样法,分析洪水发生量级、频率和峰现时间等特征,同时采用相关性分析揭示不同洪水指标与影响因素之间的关系并识别关键影响因子。结果表明:(1)1981—2020年塔里木河“四源”各站点洪峰流量大小依次为:卡群>协和拉>同古孜洛克>沙里桂兰克>大山口,年及季节尺度洪峰流量普遍呈增加趋势,冬季洪峰发生时间均呈提前状态,其中沙里桂兰克年均提前最多为2.61 d,卡群站提前仅0.67 d。(2)研究时段内塔里木河流域共有2个洪水高发期,为1994—2002年和2006—2011年,流域内大量级洪水集中发生在1990年之后。(3)洪水发生前不同时间内最小温度、降水和雪深以增加趋势为主;而最大温度以减少趋势为主。春季洪水指标与最大3 d降水的相关性最高,而秋季洪水指标与最大7 d降水的相关性最高。相比于单日降水,多日降水与洪水指标的相关性更高。在雪深相关因子中,最大15 d雪深与各站点的春季洪水指标相关性最高。研究结果对区域水资源管理以及洪水灾害预测提供理论依据。Based on temperature,precipitation,and snow depth data from five hydrological stations in four sources of the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang,China,from 1981 to 2020,flood magnitude,frequency,and peak time were analyzed using maximum and peak-over-threshold(POT)sampling methods.Moreover,correlation analysis was performed to reveal the relationship between different flood indicators and influencing factors and identify key influencing factors.The results show the following:(1)From 1981 to 2020,the peak discharge of each hydrological station in“four sources”of the Tarim River Basin is as follows:Kaqung>Xehera>Tongguzlok>Sharikilank>Daschankou.The annual and seasonal flood peak discharge generally exhibited an increasing trend,and the occurrence time of the flood peak in winter exhibited an earlier state,among which the average annual advance of Sharikilank was 2.61 days,whereas that of the Kaqung station was only 0.67 days.(2)There were two periods of high flooding in the Tarim River Basin,namely,1994—2002 and 2006—2011,with several flood occurrences in the Tarim River Basin after 1990.(3)The minimum temperature,precipitation,and snow depth at different times before the floods mainly exhibited an increasing trend,while the maximum temperature mainly exhibited a decrease.The highest correlation was found between spring flood indicators and maximum 3-day precipitation,whereas the highest correlation was found between autumn flood indicators and maximum 7-day precipitation.The correlation between multi-day precipitation and flood indicators was higher than that between singleday precipitation and flood indicators.Among the snow depth-related factors,the maximum 15-day snow depth had the highest correlation with spring flood indicators at each station.These findings provide a theoretical basis for regional water resource management and flood disaster prediction.

关 键 词：洪水 重现期 POT采样 塔里木河“四源” 

分 类 号：TV87[水利工程—水利水电工程] P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]