基于风险评估模型的传染病预警体系的建立  

Establishment of a risk assessment model based early warning system for infectious diseases

作　　者：芦永华[1] 李义芳 黄芳 何文英[1] LU Yonghua;LI Yifang;HUANG Fang;HE Wenying(Hospital Infection Management Department,the First Affiliated Hospital of Shihezi University,Shihezi 832008,China)

机构地区：[1]石河子大学第一附属医院,新疆石河子832008

出　　处：《现代医院》2024年第1期111-113,共3页Modern Hospitals

基　　金：石河子大学第一附属医院管理基金(GL202101);新疆维吾尔自治区重大科技专项项目(2020A03004-3)。

摘　　要：目的建立一套基于风险评估模型的传染病预警体系,推动传染病管理水平的提升。方法通过搜集、整理最新的研究成果,参考相关的传染病预警评价指标体系的理论框架,构建基于风险评估模型的传染病预警体系。结果本次研究共纳入了12名专家,筛选出了三个一级指标,涉及流行前期指标、典型症状期指标、非典型症状期指标等,同时涉及7个二级指标。体系的必要性平均得分为8.27±0.24分,可获得性平均得分为7.74±0.34分。结论基于风险评估模型的传染病预警体系的建立有利于当地及时掌握传染病流行趋势,并进行调查指标分布趋势分析,然后提出相应的预警方案,可为有效预防传染病提供相关的依据。Objective To establish a risk assessment model based infectious disease early warning system and promote the improvement of infectious disease management level.Methods By collecting and organizing the latest research results,and referring to the theoretical framework of the relevant infectious disease early warning evaluation index system,a risk assessment model based infectious disease early warning system is constructed.Results A total of 12 experts were included in this study,and three primary indicators were selected,including pre-epidemic indicators,typical symptom period indicators,atypical symptom period indicators,and 7 secondary indicators.The average score for necessity of the system was 8.27±0.24 points,and the average score for accessibility was 7.74±0.34 points.Conclusion The establishment of an infectious disease early warning system based on risk assessment models is conducive to timely following the epidemic trend of infectious diseases in the local area,analyzing the distribution trend of survey indicators,and proposing corresponding early warning plans,which can provide relevant basis for effective prevention of infectious diseases.

关 键 词：风险评估模型 传染病 预警体系 流行前期指标 典型症状期指标 

分 类 号：R468-2[医药卫生—临床医学] R197