颠覆性技术政策—技术路线图框架构建与实证分析--以中国新能源汽车产业为例  

A Framework of Policy-technology Roadmap of Disruptive Technology:A Case of New Energy Vehicle Industry in China

作　　者：胡雯[1] 夏蓓丽[1] Hu Wen;Xia Beili(Institute of Information,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,Shanghai 200235,China)

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院信息研究所,上海200235

出　　处：《科技进步与对策》2024年第2期25-34,共10页Science & Technology Progress and Policy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(22CGL042)。

摘　　要：在传统技术路线图的基础上,构建面向颠覆性技术及其新兴产业发展的政策—技术路线图框架,提出防御型、培育型、赋能型3类政策工具在用户需求、市场、产品、技术、参与者5个维度上的作用机制及其顺序逻辑。在此基础上,以中国新能源汽车产业为例,综合采用案例分析和荟萃分析方法,验证该框架的解释力。研究结果表明:政策—技术路线图框架从社会—技术系统转型视角阐释各阶段政策工具与颠覆性技术及其新兴产业发展间的互动演进规律,并提出早期阶段应以防御工具为主,侧重支撑知识空间形成;成长阶段应以培育工具为主,侧重建立良好利基功能;转型阶段应以赋能工具为主,通过适应性和转换性手段促使新旧范式平稳转换。In the process of low-carbon transitions,disruptive technologies can help the technology paradigm get rid of the"carbon lock-in"situation,promote the market structure to subvert the"carbon dependence"pattern,and accelerate the transition of the energy power system towards a greener direction.In the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation,the research on the response strategy of disruptive technology has gradually made breakthroughs from the enterprise level to the system level.On the one hand,it requires to reshape the relationship between the time dimension and public policy to deal with the high time sensitivity of disruptive technologies;on the other hand,response strategies are expected to develop at a higher level to deal with the social impact of disruptive technologies.In order to provide a better explanation of the dynamic relationship between the development of emerging industries based on disruptive technologies and relevant policy impact,this paper constructs a policy-technology roadmap framework for the development of disruptive technologies and their emerging industries.By introducing the sustainable transition theory of socio-technical system,the framework of integrated policy-technology roadmap(P-TRM)proposed by Huang Cui is improved in two aspects.Firstly,the traditional technology roadmap consists of three levels(market-product-technology),and then the user demand layer and the participant layer are added to realize the embedding of social dimensions and multi-subject analysis.Secondly,the typology of policy instruments is adjusted into three types(shielding,nurturing,and empowerment)to realize the dynamic analysis and transition research in the process of disruptive innovation.Meanwhile,according to the conclusion of theoretical research,a preliminary analysis is made on impact dimensions of policy instruments and multi-level interaction mechanism in the early stage,growth stage and transition stage.Within the analytical framework,empirical research is carried out by

关 键 词：颠覆性技术 技术路线图 新能源汽车 政策工具 荟萃分析 

分 类 号：F204[经济管理—国民经济]