养老保险省级统筹对养老保险基金平衡的影响研究  

Research on the Effect of Pension Insurance Provincial Pooling on Pension Insurance Fund Balance

作　　者：苏春红[1,2] 耿嫚嫚 李真[1] Su Chunhong;Geng Manman;Li Zhen

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济学院 [2]山东大学国家治理研究院,250100

出　　处：《南方经济》2024年第1期22-38,共17页South China Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“保障适度与可持续的多层次养老保险体系改革研究”(21BJY100);山东大学人文社会科学重大项目“积极应对老龄化战略的机制创新与对策研究”(21RWZD10)资助。

摘　　要：提高基本养老保险统筹层次是增强养老金支付能力的重要改革举措,也是实现养老金制度安全规范发展的关键。文章基于养老保险省级统筹改革的准自然实验,利用2008-2019年中国A股上市公司数据,构建双重差分模型实证评估了养老保险统筹改革对企业实际缴费率及基本养老保险基金平衡的影响。研究发现:省级统筹显著降低了企业养老保险实际缴费率,该结果在更改变量度量方式、排除竞争性解释、考虑异质性处理效应等一系列稳健性检验中仍然成立。养老保险省级统筹在不同征管模式、企业类型及地区层面对企业养老保险实际缴费率存在异质性影响,对于社保征收和税务代征模式、劳动密集度高的企业、所在地区老龄化程度低和财政压力小的企业影响更明显。机制分析发现,市县政府由于“相对剥夺效应”和“逐底竞争效应”所产生的征管强度不足是造成省级统筹改革后企业缴费率下降的重要因素。进一步分析表明,省级统筹改革降低了基金收支平衡,并对中西部省份影响更明显。研究对于加强地方政府征管治理、促进养老保险基金平衡发展具有重要启示,为征管主体间利益关系的平衡及养老保险全国统筹的顺利推进提供了经验证据。Due to the superimposed effects of continuous aging and economic slowdown,the pressure of pension fund payment is increasing sharply,the sustainable development of pension insurance system is facing challenges,and the imbalance of pen-sion insurance fund is prominent.Raising the level of basic pension insurance pooling is an important reform initiative to en-hance the ability to pay pensions and the key to achieving the safe and standardized development of the pension system.Based on a quasi-natural experiment of pension insurance provincial pooling reform,the article constructs a difference-in-difference model to empirically assess the impact of pension insurance pooling reform on corporate actual contribution rates and basic pension fund balance using data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2008 to 2019.The study finds that pro-vincial pooling significantly reduces the actual contribution rate of enterprise pension insurance,and this result still holds in a series of robustness tests such as changing the variable measure,excluding competitive explanations,and considering hetero-geneity treatment effects.Provincial pooling of pension insurance has heterogeneous effects on the actual contribution rate of enterprise pension insurance in different modes of collection and management,enterprise types and regional levels,and the ef-fects are more obvious for enterprises in social security collection and tax collection mode,enterprises with high labor-intensi-ty,and enterprises in regions with low aging and low financial pressure.The analysis of the mechanism finds that the insuffi-cient intensity of collection and management by municipal and county governments due to"relative deprivation effect"and"bottom-up competition effect"is an important factor causing the decrease of enterprise contribution rate after provincial pooling reform.Further analysis shows that the reform of provincial pooling reduces the fund balance and has a more pro-nounced impact on the central and western provinces.The study has important i

关 键 词：养老保险统筹 征管强度 实际缴费率 基金平衡 

分 类 号：F842.67[经济管理—保险]