多源流理论视域下的地铁拥挤踩踏事故应急管理策略  

Emergency management strategy of subway stampede accident based on multi-stream theory

作　　者：王起全 杨鑫刚[2] 蓝军 张以波 WANG Qiquan;YANG Xingang;LAN Jun;ZHANG Yibo(School of Safety Engineering,China University of Labor Relations,Beijing 100048,China;School of Labor Education,China University of Labor Relations,Beijing 100048,China)

机构地区：[1]中国劳动关系学院安全工程学院,北京100048 [2]中国劳动关系学院劳动教育学院,北京100048

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2023年第11期181-188,共8页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：中国劳动关系学院一般项目(21XYJS010)。

摘　　要：为预防地铁拥挤踩踏事故的发生,构建地铁拥挤踩踏事故多源流分析模型,对地铁拥挤踩踏事故的人群源流、空间源流、时间源流、情绪源流及扰动事件和人群拥挤时间窗进行分析和研究,总结归纳地铁拥挤踩踏事故的演化过程,寻找不同阶段各个源流的特点及其影响因素,探究地铁踩踏事故发生演化机制。结果表明:时间源流的高峰节点、空间源流的脆弱性区域、人群源流的人群拥挤、情绪源流的恐慌情绪是地铁拥挤踩踏事故多源流分析模型的关键节点,当4流交汇,扰动事件发生,人群拥挤时间窗开启,应急专家的介入程度,总体态势控制状况将决定是否发生地铁拥挤踩踏事故。人群源流既是事故发生的基础诱因又是事故最终的承载体,应建立完善地铁站内大流量人群预警监控系统、风险监测体系,并构建各类灾情信息共享机制等应急管理策略。In order to prevent the occurrence of subway stampede accidents,a multi-stream flow analysis model for subway overcrowding and stampede accidents was constructed.By analyzing and researching the crowd stream,spatial stream,time stream,emotional stream,disturbance events,and crowd overcrowding time windows of subway stampede accidents,the evolution process of subway stampede accidents was summarized,and the characteristics and influencing factors of each stream at different stages were searched.The evolution mechanism of subway stampede accidents includes peak nodes of the time stream,vulnerable areas of the spatial stream,crowd crowding of the crowd stream,and panic emotions of the emotional stream.These are key nodes in the multi-stream analysis model of subway stampede accidents.When the four streams intersect,disturbance events occur,the crowd crowding time window opens,and the intervention level of emergency experts,and the overall situation control will determine whether a subway stampede accident occurs.The analysis results show that the crowd stream is not only the fundamental cause of accidents but also the ultimate carrier of accidents.It is necessary to establish and improve the early warning and monitoring system for large crowds in subway stations,and establish emergency management strategies such as various disaster information sharing mechanisms to prevent subway stampede accidents.

关 键 词：多源流理论 地铁拥挤踩踏事故 应急管理 演化机制 人群源流 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]