中国气象局风能太阳能预报系统(CMA-WSP)在风资源短期预报中的检验评估  

Validation and Evaluation of the China Meteorological Administration Wind Energy and Solar Energy Forecasting System(CMA-WSP)in Short-Term Wind Resource Forecasting

作　　者：王明 孟丹 许沛华 许杨 陈正洪 贾蓓西 WANG Ming;MENG Dan;XU Peihua;XU Yang;CHEN Zhenghong;JIA Beixi(Hubei Meteorological Service Center,Wuhan 430205,Hubei,China;Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research,Institute of Heavy Rain,China Meteorological Administration,Wuhan 430205,Hubei,China;Public Meteorological Service Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北省气象服务中心,湖北武汉430205 [2]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430205 [3]中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京100081

出　　处：《南方能源建设》2024年第1期73-84,共12页Southern Energy Construction

基　　金：湖北省自然科学基金“基于卫星雷达资料和中小尺度模式的风光资源降尺度方法研究”(2023AFB543);湖北省自然科学基金-气象创新发展联合基金“风光水能互补协同机理及耦合预报方法研究”(2022CFD017);湖北省气象局科研项目“湖北省大气边界层风能资源特性分析及开发潜力评估”(2023Y08)。

摘　　要：[目的]为检验中国气象局风能太阳能预报系统(CMA-WSP)风速产品在风资源短期预报中的可靠性,对CMAWSP 100 m风速3 d预报产品进行检验分析。[方法]文章利用湖北省枣阳周楼、麻城蔡家寨和大金中部3个风电场100 m风速实测数据开展研究。[结果]研究结果如下:(1)CMA-WSP对枣阳风电场3 d内风速的整体预报效果较好,预报结果与实测风速变化趋势较为一致,逐15 min、小时平均和日平均风速第1 d的预报与实测风速相关系数可达0.728、0.740和0.860,随着预报时效增加,预报与实测相关性逐渐降低。(2)CMA-WSP预报风速与实测风速相对误差变化规律性强,逐15 min、小时平均和日平均风速第1 d预报相对误差分别为68%、70%和92%,预报风速整体高于实测风速;小时平均风速及相对误差均呈现白天小、晚上大的特征;月平均风速变化与MRE值变化呈相反趋势,且在1~6月和10~12月最低、7~9月最大。(3)从地区差异来看,CMA-WSP对枣阳周楼风电场风速的预报效果最好,第1 d预报与实测风速相关性可以达到0.728,第2~3 d的预报相关性也超过0.6,CMA-WSP对蔡家寨和大金中部风电场的预报与实测风速相关系数均低于0.6。[结论]CMA-WSP风速预报效果整体较好,且相对误差具有一定的规律性,有利于下一步对该产品进行订正、降低误差水平。[Introduction]To test the reliability of the CMA-WSP wind speed product in short-term wind resource forecasting,the CMAWSP 3 d wind speed forecasting product with a wind speed of 100 m is tested and analyzed.[Method]This research was based on the measured data of 100 m wind speed in three wind farms in Zaoyang Zhoulou,Macheng Caijiazhai and Central Dajin.[Result]The results are as follows:(1)CMA-WSP has a good overall forecasting performance on the wind speed in Zaoyang wind farm within three days.The forecasted results are consistent with the measured wind speed change trend.The correlation between the forecasted and the measured wind speed on the first day are 0.728,0.74 and 0.86 for 15 min intervals,hourly averages,and daily averages,respectively.(2)The relative error between the CMA-WSP forecast and the measured wind speed shows a strong regularity.The relative errors for the forecasted wind speed on the first day are 68%,70%and 92%for 15 min intervals,hourly averages,and daily averages,respectively.The forecasted wind speed is higher than the measured wind speed.The hourly average wind speed and relative error are characterized by low wind speed during the day and high wind speed at night.The change of monthly average wind speed is opposite to the change of MRE value,and it is the lowest from January to June and from October to December,and the highest from July to September.(3)When considering regional differences,CMA-WSP has the best forecasting effect on the wind speed in Zaoyang wind farm.The correlation between the forecasted and the measured wind speed on the first day can reach 0.728,and the correlation on the second to third days is also more than 0.6.The correlation between the forecasted wind speed and the measured wind speed in Caijiazhai and Central Dajin by CMA-WSP is less than 0.6.[Conclusion]CMA-WSP forecasting performance is favorable as a whole,and the relative error has strong regularity.It is beneficial to revise the product and reduce the error level in the next step.

关 键 词：CMA-WSP 风电场 预报风速 实测数据 预报效果 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TK89[动力工程及工程热物理—流体机械及工程]