2021—2022年赤羽病通过牛羊调运传入山东省的定量风险评估研究  

Quantitative risk assessment of Akabane disease introduced into Shandong Province through the transport of cattle and sheep from 2021 to 2022

作　　者：李超[1,2] 沈朝建 魏玉荣[3] 张祯涛[4] 王玉英 张毅 何微 黄克和 薛峰[1] LI Chao;SHEN Chaojian;WEI Yurong;ZHANG Zhentao;WANG Yuying;ZHANG Yi;HE Wei;HUANG Kehe;XUE Feng(Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095,China;China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center/Key Laboratory of Animal Biosafety Risk Prevention and Control(South),Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Qingdao 266032,China;Institute of Veterinary Medicine of Xinjiang Academy of Animal Sciences/Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Animal Infectious Diseases,Urumqi 830013,China;Shandong Animal Health Technology Center,Jinan 250109,China;Qingdao Aquarium,Qingdao 266031,China;Zunyi Medical University,Zunyi 563000,China)

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学,江苏南京210095 [2]中国动物卫生与流行病学中心/农业农村部动物生物安全风险预警及防控重点实验室(南方),山东青岛266032 [3]新疆畜牧科学院兽医研究所/新疆动物疫病研究重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830013 [4]山东省动物卫生技术中心,山东济南250109 [5]青岛水族馆,山东青岛266031 [6]遵义医科大学,贵州遵义563000

出　　处：《畜牧与兽医》2024年第2期98-103,共6页Animal Husbandry & Veterinary Medicine

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFD1800500);新疆动物疫病研究重点实验室开放课题项目(2023KLA004)。

摘　　要：为分析评估赤羽病通过牛羊调运传入山东省的风险,收集、整理2021—2022年活牛和活羊调入山东省的途径、调出省份、调入数量和批次等信息,利用“情景树”法建立传入风险随机模型进行仿真分析。结果显示:从外省调入感染赤羽病羊的风险值为0.0155(95%CI:0.0118~0.0228);从外省调入感染赤羽病牛的风险值为0.0338(95%CI:0.0225~0.0493)。提示:在进行牛羊调运时,做好启运前的产地检疫和到达后的隔离检疫可降低赤羽病传入的风险。本研究为降低赤羽病传入山东省的风险策略制定提供了参考。To analyze and evaluate the risk of Akabane disease being introduced into Shandong Province through the transfer of cattle and sheep,we collected and organized the data on the transfer route,source province,transfer quantity,and batches of live cattle and sheep transferred into Shandong Province from 2021 to 2022.Using the“scenario tree”method for simulation analysis,we established a stochastic model to assess the introduction risk.The findings were that the risk of AKAV infection was 0.0155(95%CI:0.0118-0.0228)in transferred sheep and 0.0338(95%CI:0.0225-0.0493)in transferred cattle from other provinces.These results highlighted the significance of considering the risk of Akabane disease being introduced into Shandong Province through the transportation of cattle and sheep.It would be important that we raise the pathogen detection rate of the animals during origin quarantine before transfer and implement rigorous quarantine measures upon arrival so as to more effectively reduce the risk of Akabane disease being introduced.This study might serve as valuable reference for minimizing the risk of Akabane disease introduction into Shandong Province.

关 键 词：赤羽病 定量风险评估 调运 隔离检疫 

分 类 号：S852[农业科学—基础兽医学]