复杂系统可靠性评估方法研究综述  

Review of Reliability Assessment Methods for Complex Systems

作　　者：罗剑武 葛智君 陈克澎 LUO Jianwu;GE Zhijun;CHEN Kepeng(CEPREI,Guangzhou 511370,China;Guangzhou CEPREI Tengrui Information Technology Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 511370,China)

机构地区：[1]工业和信息化部电子第五研究所,广东广州511370 [2]广州赛宝腾睿信息科技有限公司,广东广州511370

出　　处：《电子产品可靠性与环境试验》2023年第6期122-130,共9页Electronic Product Reliability and Environmental Testing

摘　　要：在第四次工业革命中,工业产品经历了从机械产品到机电一体化产品、智能互联产品、产品系统和系统之系统的演变过程[1],产品复杂性不断增加,应用场景日益丰富,同时对可靠性和安全性的要求也越来越高。由于复杂系统组成元素多、元素交互多、多学科耦合和软件密集等特点,其可靠性评估在模型确定、数据融合和可靠性综合等方面困难重重。随着技术的发展,尽管蒙特卡洛方法、贝叶斯方法(Bayes)和金字塔式综合评估等复杂系统的可靠性评估方法在工程上得到了一定的应用,但也难以完全解决小子样、多层级、高可靠复杂系统评估精度和评估效率问题。在理清复杂系统通用可靠性评估技术发展脉络的基础上,重点针对多状态系统、多失效模式系统和可修系统等复杂系统的可靠性评估的国内外研究现状进行梳理,分析了存在的不足,探讨了未来技术的发展趋势。In the fourth industrial revolution,industrial products have experienced an evolutionary process from mechanical products to mechatronic integration products,intelligent interconnected products,product systems and systems of systems.Product complexity is increasing,application scenarios are becoming more and more diverse,and the requirements for reliability and security are also becoming higher and higher.Due to the characteristics of complex systems with many constituent elements,multiple element interactions,multidisciplinary coupling and software intensity,their reliability assessment is difficult in terms of model determination,data fusion and reliability synthesis.With the development of technology,although the Monte Carlo method,Bayesian method and pyramidal integrated assessment and other reliability assessment methods for complex systems have been applied in engineering,it is difficult to completely solve the problems of assessment accuracy and assessment efficiency of small sub-sample,multi-level and highly reliable complex systems.On the basis of clarifying the development of general reliability assessment technology for complex systems,the current status of domestic and international research on the reliability assessment of complex systems,such as multi-state systems,multi-failure mode systems and repairable systems is analyzed emphatically.The deficiencies are analyzed,and the future development trend of the technology is discussed.

关 键 词：复杂系统 金字塔式 多状态系统 多失效模式系统 可修系统 可靠性评估 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]