基于LEAP模型的天津市城市客运交通节能减排情景预测  

Scenario Prediction of the Energy-saving and Emission-reduction of Tianjin Urban Passenger Transport Based on LEAP Model

作　　者：陈永昊 朱晓东 孟维伟 高佳宁 CHEN Yonghao;ZHU Xiaodong;MENG Weiwei;GAO Jianing(North China Municipal Engineering Design&Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Tianjin,300074,China)

机构地区：[1]中国市政工程华北设计研究总院有限公司,天津300074

出　　处：《交通节能与环保》2024年第1期66-70,共5页Transport Energy Conservation & Environmental Protection

摘　　要：本文以天津市为研究对象,基于低排放分析平台(Low Emissions Analysis Platform,LEAP)构建城市客运交通碳排放测算模型,并采用情景分析法,对2030年低碳交通发展目标和发展路径进行探索。结果表明,四种发展情景下的天津市能源消耗及碳排放较基准情景均有减少,其中综合情景效果最佳,可实现节能81.90%、碳减排77.0%。因此,应大力促进公共交通,并积极探索清洁能源新技术以推动实现“双碳”目标。Taking Tianjin as the research object,this paper constructs an urban passenger transport carbon emission calculation model based on Low Emissions Analysis Platform(LEAP),which adopts the scenario analysis method to explore the development target and development path of low-carbon transport in 2030.The result shows that the energy consumption and carbon emission of Tianjin under the four development scenarios are reduced compared with the baseline scenario,and the comprehensive scenario has the best effect,which can reduce the energy consumption and CO2 emissions by 81.90%and 77.0%respectively.Therefore,it is necessary to promote public transportation and clean energy technologies to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.

关 键 词：城市客运交通 碳排放 LEAP 情景分析 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]