基于当前气候数据预测红火蚁在我国的潜在适生区  

Suitable area prediction of red imported fire ant in China based on current climate data

作　　者：尹传林 高煌杰 赵雪晴[2] 刘莹 Yin Chuanlin;Gao Huangjie;Zhao Xueqing;Liu Ying(College of Life Sciences,China Jiliang University/Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Biometrology and Inspection and Quarantine,Hangzhou 310018,China;Institute of Agricultural Resources and Environment,Yunnan Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Green Prevention and Control of Agricultural Transboundary Pests of Yunnan Province)

机构地区：[1]中国计量大学生命科学学院/浙江省生物计量及检验检疫技术重点实验室,浙江杭州310018 [2]云南省农业科学院农业环境资源研究所/云南省农业跨境有害生物绿色防控重点实验室

出　　处：《植物检疫》2024年第1期72-78,共7页Plant Quarantine

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFD1000500);云南省重大科技专项计划(202102AE090003);云南农业跨境重大有害生物协同绿色防控创新团队(202005AE16003);云南省财政专项(2022CZ002)。

摘　　要：红火蚁是世界范围内重要入侵有害生物,预测和研究红火蚁在我国的适生区,可为红火蚁的监测和防控提供理论依据。本研究搜集并整理红火蚁在我国区县级的发生点数据,通过计算2000-2022年间月最高气温、月最低气温和月降水量等19个生物气候变量之间的相关性,使用VIF和Pearson检验筛选获得6个最主要的气候变量,基于Biomod2的组合模型对当前红火蚁适生区进行了预测。结果显示,影响红火蚁适生区分布最重要的环境因子为气温季节性变动系数与平均气温日较差,当前时期的红火蚁高度适生区集中在海南、广东、广西、福建、浙江、贵州、云南、江西和重庆等省市,研究结果为红火蚁的监测预警和科学防控提供理论支撑。Solenopsis invicta is an important invasive pest worldwide.Predicting and studying the suitable area of the Solenopsis invicta in China can provide a theoretical basis for the monitoring,prevention and control of the Solenopsis invicta.In this study,we collected and collated the occurrence data of the Solenopsis invicta at the district and county levels in China,and calculated the correlation between 19 bio-climatic variables such as monthly maximum temperature,monthly minimum temperature and monthly pre-cipitation during the period of 2000-2022,and screened them by VIF and Pearson test to obtain the 6 most important climatic variables,and then predicted the suitable area of the Solenopsis invictas in China based on the combined model of Biomod2.The results showed that the most important environmental factor affecting the distribution of Solenopsis invicta habitat is the seasonal variation coefficient of tem-perature,and mean diurnal temperature difference.The Solenopsis invicta habitat in the current period is concentrated in the provinces and cities of Hainan,Guangdong,Guangxi,Fujian,Zhejiang,Guizhou,Yunnan,Jiangxi and Chongqing,etc.The results of this study provide theoretical support for the monitoring,early warning and scientific prevention and control of the Solenopsis invicta.

关 键 词：红火蚁 适生区预测 生态位模型 

分 类 号：S41[农业科学—植物保护]