基于岭回归优化算法的高速公路大桥工程造价预测模型  

Cost Prediction Model for Highway Bridge Project Based on Ridge Regression Optimization Algorithm

作　　者：程书祥 熊世奇 刘俊 刘琰然 王元庆[2] 吴玲 CHENG Shuxiang;XIONG Shiqi;LIU Jun;LIU Yanran;WANG Yuanqing;WU Ling(Guangdong Gezhouba Zhaoming Expressway Co.,Ltd,Zhaoqing 526070,China;College of Transportation Engineering,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710061,China;School of Vehicle Engineering,Xi’an Aeronautical Institute,Xi’an 710077,China)

机构地区：[1]广东葛洲坝肇明高速公路有限公司,广东肇庆526070 [2]长安大学运输工程学院,陕西西安710061 [3]西安航空学院车辆工程学院,陕西西安710077

出　　处：《建筑经济》2023年第S02期225-229,共5页Construction Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目:基于清洁生产的资源受限区道路几何与铺面设计基础理论研究(51878062);肇明高速公路项目全过程造价管控及全寿命周期技术经济性研究(ZMGS-HT-2021-30)。

摘　　要：丘陵区域的高速公路桥梁工程特点与其他区域有所不同。为研究大桥工程造价与工程量、主材消耗量等因素的量化关系,从数据驱动角度出发,以某高速桥梁工程为研究对象,基于优化后的丘陵区多样本高速公路桥梁工程施工概算数据,选取19座大桥的造价费用、典型工程量和主材消耗量为样本,在预测因子相关性检验、多重共线性诊断的基础上,构建基于岭回归优化算法的高速公路大桥工程造价预测模型。结果表明本研究所构建的基于岭回归优化算法的大桥工程造价模型能够实现对丘陵区高速公路大桥工程造价预测,模型预测精度较高。The characteristics of highway bridge projects in hilly areas are different from those in other regions.In order to study the quantitative relationship between the cost of bridge projects and factors such as project volume and main material consumption,the cost prediction model for highway bridge construction was developed using a data-driven approach based on the optimized construction cost of 19 bridges in hilly areas,specifically the ridge regression optimization algorithm,incorporating correlation tests of predictive factors and multicollinearity diagnosis.The analysis results showed that the cost model for bridge construction,developed in this study based on the ridge regression optimization algorithm,can accurately predict the costs of highway bridge construction in hilly regions with a high level of accuracy.

关 键 词：公路工程 桥梁工程 岭回归 造价预测 丘陵区 

分 类 号：TU723.3[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]