商品金融化程度与货币政策目标的动态影响机制研究——基于TVP-SV-VAR模型的实证分析  

Study on the Interaction Mechanism Between Commodity Financialization Degree and Monetary Policy and Objectives--Empirical Analysis Based on TVP SV-VAR Model

作　　者：王萱 姜春艳 WANG Xuan;JIANG Chunyan(Shenzhen Institute of Information Technology,518172,Shenzhen,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳信息职业技术学院,广东深圳518172

出　　处：《特区经济》2024年第1期63-70,共8页Special Zone Economy

基　　金：广东省哲学社会科学“十四五”规划项目“基于货币幻觉和理性预期的广东省超大城市住房调控策略研究”(GD21YYJ11);2021年度广东省青少年研究立项课题“跃迁视角下广东省超大城市青年住房状况调查及对策研究”(2021WT048)。

摘　　要：商品市场与金融市场特征越发的相似促使学者对其进行深入的研究。本文采用TVP-SV-VAR模型对商品金融化程度与货币政策及目标之间的互动机制进行分析,结果表明:商品金融化程度因素对经济系统的影响具有时变特征,且对宏观经济信息敏感度较强;商品金融化程度对价格型货币政策的影响比对数量型货币政策的正向影响更为显著;商品金融化程度高的对货币政策影响持久且较为平稳,但是中短期更为显著。本研究通过分析商品金融化的不同程度对宏观经济政策的影响并提出具有针对性的政策方案。The increasingly similar characteristics of commodity markets and financial markets prompted scholars to conduct in-depth research on them.This article uses the TVP-SV-VAR model to analyze the interac-tion mechanism between the degree of commodity financialization and monetary policy and targets,and the re-sults show that:The impact of the degree of commodity financialization on the economic system has time-varying characteristics,and it is highly sensitive to macroeconomic information;the degree of commodity financialization will have a more significant impact on price-type monetary policy than the quantitative type of monetary policy;the degree of commodity financialization will have a lasting and stable impact on monetary policy,and at the same time will be short-and medium-term The impact is even more significant.It focuses on the impact of different degrees of commodity financialization on macroeconomic policies and pro-poses targeted policy implementation plans.

关 键 词：商品金融化程度 货币政策 通货膨胀 宏观经济 

分 类 号：F820.5[经济管理—财政学]