中国省际黄金周旅游倍增效应时空差异及影响因素分析  

Spatial-Temporal Differences and Influencing Factors of Inter-provincial Tourism Multiplication Effect in China during Golden Week Holidays

作　　者：谷义江 孙根年 GU Yijiang;SUN Gennian(School of Geography and Tourism,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi′an 710119,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,陕西西安710119

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2024年第1期142-148,共7页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(20BJY204);国家自然科学基金项目(41901144)。

摘　　要：基于2010—2019年中国31个省域国庆/春节黄金周旅游数据,通过核密度估计、探索性空间数据分析、空间计量模型等方法对黄金周旅游倍增效应的时空演变及其影响因素进行探讨。结果发现:①研究期间中国省际黄金周旅游倍增效应呈现整体增强趋势,但区域差异逐渐扩大,冷热点分化明显;②国庆假期旅游倍增效应“东高西低”且变化较大,春节假期旅游倍增效应形成东北、西南、粤琼3个稳定高值区,呈三足鼎立态势;③31个省域黄金周旅游存在明显的空间依存性,倍增系数高(低)省域的周边省域倍增系数亦高(低);④人均GDP、公路里程对国庆假期旅游倍增效应存在负向影响,高A级旅游景区、铁路里程对国庆假期旅游倍增效应存在正向影响,冬季气候舒适度、冰雪旅游指数和高A级旅游景区对春节假期旅游倍增效应存在正向影响。Based on the tourism data of 31 provinces in China during the Golden Week holidays from 2010 to 2019,this paper explored the spatial-temporal evolution of the Golden Week tourism multiplication effect and its influencing factors using kernel density estimation,exploratory spatial data analysis,and spatial econometric modeling.It is found as follows.①During the study period,China′s inter-provincial tourism multiplication effect during the Golden Week holidays generally showed an increasing trend,but regional differences gradually expanded.②The spatial distribution of the tourism multiplication effect during the National Day and Spring Festival holidays was obviously different.The tourism multiplication effect of the National Day holiday was"high in the east and low in the west"and varied greatly,but that of the Spring Festival holiday formed three stable high-value areas:Northeast,Southwest,and Guangdong-Hainan.③There is an obvious spatial dependence for the Golden Week tourism in China.Provinces with high/low tourism multiplication effect,their surrounding provinces also have high/low multiplication effect.④GDP per capita and highway mileage had a negative impact on the tourism multiplication effect during the National Day holiday,while the number of 4A and 5A scenic spots and railroad mileage had a positive impact.Winter climate comfort,ice and snow tourism index,the number of 4A and 5A scenic spots had a positive impact on the tourism multiplication effect during the Spring Festival holiday.These results can enrich the theory of holiday tourism and provide a reference for recognizing the spatial-temporal differentiation and influencing factors of the Golden Week tourism.

关 键 词：黄金周旅游 倍增效应 时空格局 影响因素 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]