中美印对泛南亚国家的地缘经济权力时空分异  

Spatiotemporal Divergence of China-USA-India Geo-economic Influence Power over Pan-South Asian Countries

作　　者：牛福长 葛岳静 赵正贤 陈秀红 黄宇 吴俊强 NIU Fuchang;GE Yuejing;ZHAO Zhengxian;CHEN Xiuhong;HUANG Yu;WU Junqiang(Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability,Xining 810008,Qinghai,China;Yunnan Provincial Seismological Bureau,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China;Faculty of Geography,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 655500,Yunnan,China;Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research&Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System,Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;School of Geography,Qinghai Normal University,Xining 810008,Qinghai,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875 [2]高原科学与可持续发展研究院,青海西宁810008 [3]云南省地震局,云南昆明650224 [4]云南师范大学地理学部,云南昆明655500 [5]中国科学院青藏高原研究所/青藏高原地球系统与资源环境全国重点实验室,北京100101 [6]青海师范大学地理科学学院,青海西宁810008

出　　处：《经济地理》2023年第12期23-35,共13页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD138);国家自然科学基金项目(42101231);青海省自然科学基金项目(2021-ZJ-909)。

摘　　要：地缘经济权力日益成为维护国家安全、辅助国家地缘战略决策、明晰国家地缘环境的重要研究内容。基于国家实力、国际贸易、投资、援助、贷款等数据和指标,从权力实施和权力实施有效性两个方向,搭建地缘经济权力分析框架与定量模型,并以21世纪以来的中美印与“泛南亚”国家为例,研究其地缘经济权力的实施、有效性、演变及时空分异。研究发现:(1)权力实施方面,中美印与“泛南亚”国家的敏感性和脆弱性流露出明显现实主义色彩,不同年份对泛南亚国家的影响力和“营建”度各有侧重和选择。(2)权力实施的有效性方面,“泛南亚”国家对中美印施加权力的反应和响应程度不一,其依赖度与仰仗度存在“大国平衡和多双边下注”的倾向。(3)权力演变方面,中美印对各自权力区的构建和固化差异明显,权力变化态势与形态复杂异化多样。文章从权力来源、施动过程与有效性及地缘经济的经世致用作出讨论。The geo-economic influence power has increasingly become an important research content for safeguarding the national security,assisting the national geo-strategic decision-making and clarifying the national geo-environment.Based on national strength,international trade,investment,aid,loans and other data and indicators,this paper constructs an analytical framework and quantitative model of geo-economic influence power from the two aspects of the influence power implementation and the influence power implementation effectiveness,and takes China,the United States,India and Pan-South Asia countries as examples to study the implementation,effectiveness and evolution of their geo-economic influence power.The findings are as follows:1) In the aspect of influence power implementation,the sensitivities and vulnerabilities among China-the United States-India and the "Pan-South Asian" countries reveal a distinct realism,and different years have their own emphasis and choices on the influence and "construction" of Pan-South Asia countries in different years.2) In the aspect of the influence power implementation effectiveness,the "Pan-South Asian" countries' responses and reactions to the power influenced by China,the United States and India vary,and there is a tendency of "great power balance and multi-bilateral betting" in their dependence and reliance.3) In terms of influence power evolution,China,the United States and India have obvious differences in the construction and solidification of their respective influencing areas,the influence power change situation and patterns are complex and heterogeneous.This paper concludes with a discussion of the sources of influence power,the process of its exercise and effectiveness,and the geoeconomics of its application to the world.

关 键 词：地缘经济权力 权力的实施 权力有效性 时空分异 中美印与“泛南亚”国家 

分 类 号：K901.6[历史地理—人文地理学]