气候变化背景下柑橘大实蝇在我国的潜在地理分布  

Potential geographical distribution of Bactrocera minax in China in the context of climate change

作　　者：周良 牛长缨[1] 曹震 赵守歧[2] 马晨 姜培 朱景全[2] Zhou Liang;Niu Changying;Cao Zhen;Zhao Shouqi;Ma Chen;Jiang Pei;Zhu Jingquan(College of Plant Science and Technology,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China;National Agricultural Technology Extension and Service Center,Beijing 100125,China)

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学植物科学技术学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]全国农业技术推广服务中心,北京100125

出　　处：《中国植保导刊》2023年第12期92-97,共6页China Plant Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(32272529,31972270)。

摘　　要：检疫性害虫柑橘大实蝇为害柑橘导致果实提早脱落,造成严重的经济损失。通过MaxEnt模型模拟预测柑橘大实蝇在历史及未来气候条件下在我国的潜在地理分布,结果表明,在历史气候情景下,柑橘大实蝇在我国的适生区范围较广,主要集中于中部和南部,高、中、低适生区的总面积占我国国土面积的28.25%。相比于当前气候,在未来气候情景SSP126和SSP585下,适生区面积先增后减,到21世纪中叶以后,适生区范围又开始扩张,研究结果为探索未来气候变化背景下柑橘大实蝇在我国的潜在分布范围提供了参考。Bactrocera minax is an economically important quarantine pest.The larvae feed inside the pulp,causing citrus fruit to fall off early,resulting in serious economic losses.In the present study,the potential geographical distribution of B.minax in China was predicted using the MaxEnt model under historical and future climatic change conditions.Under the historical climate scenario,B.minax was found to have a wide range of suitable areas in China,mainly in the central and southern regions,which accounted for 28.25% of Chinese land.Compared with the current climate,under the future climate scenarios SSP126 and SSP585,the suitable area increased first and then decreased slightly.By the middle of the21st century,the suitable area is expected to expand again.The results above provide a basis for clarifying the potential distribution range of B.minax in China in the context of future climate change.As an external quarantine pest,the monitoring and prevention of B.minax requires long-term attention.

关 键 词：柑橘大实蝇 气候变化 潜在地理分布 适生性分析 

分 类 号：S436.661.2[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]