基于货物时间价值的北极航线集装箱运输潜力研究  

On potential of the Arctic Route in container transportation:an analysis based on time value of goods

作　　者：季伊慧 廖泽芳[1] JI Yihui;LIAO Zefang(College of Economics and Management,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学经济管理学院,上海201306

出　　处：《中国航海》2023年第4期109-115,123,共8页Navigation of China

基　　金：国家社科后期资助项目(18FJY022);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(18YJAGJW006);上海市哲学社会科学规划一般课题(2020BGJ004)。

摘　　要：随着北极海冰覆盖率的快速下降,北极航线可通航性逐年增加,极有可能发展成为亚欧货物运输航线的重要组成部分。在传统航运成本核算的基础上,利用系统聚类分析法将集装箱贸易货物分为四类,建立基于货物时间价值的费用流网络配流模型,研究单位集装箱满载运输初始价值、货物月贬值率和运输时间对东北航线配流情况的影响。结果表明:与传统航线相比,东北航线存在运输里程短、时间快的优势,对高价值高时间敏感度的货物配流比例更高,超过50%;若传统航线发生拥堵,东北航线的配流比例可达70%以上,发展潜力巨大。未来需要加强与北极国家间的战略合作,鼓励航运公司探索开发目标货物的北极航线运输,为东北航线商业化、规模化运输奠定基础。It is very likely that the Arctic Route to develop into an important Asia-Europe cargo transport route.The implication of this fact should be investigated.For doing so,the container trade goods are divided into four categories through systematic clustering;a distribution models of cost flow network is built based on the time value of goods.The effects of initial value,depreciation rate and transportation time of goods on the distribution situation of the Northeast passage is studied.The study shows that,compared with traditional routes,the Northeast passage has the advantage of shorter transport mileage and less time;the proportion of cargo distributed to this route is more than 50%as for higher vale or time sensitive goods are concerned;if the traditional route is congested,the distribution rate to the Northeast passage can even as high as 70%or more.The potential for development is huge.To strengthen strategic cooperation with Artic countries and encourage shipping companies to try the Arctic route are suggested.

关 键 词：北极航线 集装箱运输 货物时间价值 网络配流 发展潜力 

分 类 号：F551[经济管理—产业经济]