基于CMIP6多模式的东北未来气候变化预估  

Future climate change prediction in northeastern China based on CMIP6 multi-model

作　　者：王旻忆 李治军[1] Wang Minyi;Li Zhijun(College of Hydraulic and Electric Power,Heilongjiang University,Harbin 150080,China)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江大学水利电力学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《吉林水利》2024年第2期1-10,共10页Jilin Water Resources

摘　　要：本研究基于13个CMIP6计划气候模型以及4种共享路径的社会情景对未来气温和降水变化进行评估。首先,评估了参考期(1961~2014年)多模型集合的模拟性能,发现相对于实测值,模型集合在气温方面平均偏低0.484℃,降水方面模拟结果平均每月偏大7.56 mm。其次,通过对单个气候模型的偏差进行分析,选择表现较好的4个模型参与未来气温和降水的预测。研究表明,未来气温将普遍上升,高排放情景(SSP5-8.5)升温幅度最大,2100年气温预计升高4.34℃左右;而低排放情景(SSP1-2.6)升温幅度相对较小,气温将升高2.48℃左右,且未来升温主要集中在冬季。降水方面,年际变化呈缓慢增加的趋势,每月降水将增加10mm左右,夏季降水量明显增加。最后,比较了选定的4个模型的集合平均与13个模型的集合平均,发现它们在预测未来气温与降水方面存在一定差异,需进一步研究。This study evaluates future temperature and precipitation changes based on 13 CMIP6 program climate models and four shared path social scenarios.Firstly,the performance of multiple model sets during the reference period(1961~2014)was evaluated,and it was found that compared with the measured value,the average temperature of the model set was 0.484℃lower,and the average monthly simulated result of precipitation was 7.56 mm higher.Then,by analyzing the bias of single climate models,four models with good performance are selected to participate in the future temperature and precipitation prediction.The study shows that there will be a general increase in temperature in the future,with the highest temperature increase occuring in the high-emission scenario(SSP5-8.5),which is expected to increase about 4.34°C in 2100;while the low-emission scenario(SSP1-2.6)has a relatively small temperature increase of about 2.48°C,and the warming is mainly concentrated in the coming winter.In terms of precipitation,the inter-annual change shows a slow increase trend,and the monthly precipitation will increase by about 10mm,and the summer precipitation will increasing significantly.Finally,the ensemble average of the four selected models is compared with the ensemble average of the 13 models,and it is found that they have some differences in predicting future temperature and precipitation,which needs further study.

关 键 词：CMIP6 气候模型 模型评估 社会经济情景 未来气候预测 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]