沱江流域雨季极端降水时空演变特征  

Spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation in rainy season of Tuojiang River Basin

作　　者：周丽[1] 罗娟 Zhou Li;Luo Juan(College of Geography and Resource Science,Neijiang Normal University,Neijiang 641100,China)

机构地区：[1]内江师范学院地理与资源科学学院,四川内江641100

出　　处：《吉林水利》2024年第2期11-16,共6页Jilin Water Resources

基　　金：四川省社会科学重点研究基地沱江流域高质量发展研究中心一般项目(编号:TJGZL2020-26)。

摘　　要：为应对我国极端降水事件频发的现状,加强沱江流域极端降水的应灾防灾能力,采用百分中位法确定沱江流域雨季各气象站点的极端降水阈值,并在此基础上选取了极端降水总量、极端降水频次和极端降水强度等极端降水指标,运用普通克里金法、线性倾向估计法、 Mann-Kendall突变检验和Morlet小波分析等方法研究极端降水的时空演变特征。结果表明:在空间上,极端降水阈值表现出由西向东逐渐增加的趋势,频次由西向东逐渐减少,总量和强度均表现出由西北向东南逐渐减少的趋势;在时间上,沱江流域雨季极端降水总体呈减少趋势;1984年极端降水总量和强度发生突变,而后,极端降水呈显著下降趋势。In order to cope with the frequent occurrence of extreme precipitation events in China and strengthen the disaster prevention capability of extreme precipitation in the Tuojiang River Basin,this paper uses percentile method to determine the extreme precipitation threshold of meteorological stations in the rainy season of the Tuojiang River Basin,on this basis,the extreme precipitation indicators such as the total amount of extreme precipitation,the frequency of extreme precipitation and the extreme precipitation intensity are selected,and the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation are studied by Ordinary Kriging,linear tendency estimation,Mann-Kendall mutation test and Morlet wavelet analysis.The results showed that:Spatially,the extreme precipitation threshold showed a gradual increase from west to east,the frequency of extreme precipitation gradually decreased from west to east,and the total amount of extreme precipitation and extreme precipitation intensity showed a gradual decrease from northwest to southeast.In terms of time,the extreme precipitation in the rainy season in the Tuojiang River Basin showed a general trend of decrease;the total amount of extreme precipitation and the intensity of extreme precipitation both changed in 1984.

关 键 词：沱江流域 极端降水 时空演变 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]