基于多项式Logit模型的道路交叉口机非事故影响因素分析  

Analysis of Factors Influencing Motor Vehicle and Non Motor Vehicle Crashes at Road Intersections Based on Multinomial Logit Model

作　　者：贺昆 HE Kun(Shanghai Municipal Engineering Design Institute(Group)Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200092,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市政工程设计研究总院(集团)有限公司,上海200092

出　　处：《交通工程》2024年第1期61-66,共6页Journal of Transportation Engineering

摘　　要：为分析道路交叉口处机动车和非机动车交通事故的影响因素,将事故按照严重程度划分为无伤害事故、可能伤害事故、轻伤事故、重伤事故以及死亡事故,并提取了机动车驾驶员年龄及性别、非机动车驾驶员年龄及性别,道路线型、光照条件、限速条件等13个影响因素作为自变量,基于多项式Logit模型对事故进行了模型标定以及边际效应分析.结果表明:非机动车驾驶员的性别及年龄、非机动车所处的位置、事故发生地区域类型、光照条件、道路线型、限速条件7个变量与事故的严重程度存在显着相关.To analyze the influencing factors of motor vehicle and non motor vehicle traffic crashes at road intersections,crashes were classified into non injury crashes,possible injury crashes,minor injury crashes,serious injury crashes,and fatal crashes according to their severity.Thirteen influencing factors,including age and gender of motor vehicle drivers,age and gender of non motor vehicle drivers,road alignment,lighting conditions,and speed limit conditions,etc.were extracted as independent variables.Based on the Multinomial Logit model,the crash was calibrated and analyzed for marginal effects.The results indicate that seven variables,including the gender and age of non motor vehicle drivers,the location of non motor vehicles,the type of crash area,lighting conditions,road alignment,and speed limit conditions,are significantly correlated with the severity of the crash.

关 键 词：交通事故 多项式Logit模型 影响因素 边际效应 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]