CMIP6模式模拟的人类活动和自然强迫对全球地表气温多尺度变化的影响  

Effects of human activities and natural forcings on multiscale changes of global land surface air temperature simulated by CMIP6 Models

作　　者：徐川 赵天保[2] 张京朋 陶丽[1] XU Chuan;ZHAO TianBao;ZHANG JingPeng;TAO Li(School of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia,Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP),Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS),Beijing 100029,China;College of Natural Resources and Environment,Northwest A&F University,Yangling Shaanxi 712100,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京210044 [2]中国科学院东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室,北京100029 [3]西北农林科技大学资源环境学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《地球物理学报》2024年第2期477-491,共15页Chinese Journal of Geophysics

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0600402);国家自然科学基金项目(41675094,41975115,42205032)资助.

摘　　要：量化人类活动在气候变化中的定量贡献是气候变化检测归因研究的核心科学问题,也是提高气候变化预测和预估水平的重要科学基础.本文基于最新的第6次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)多模式历史归因模拟试验(DAMIP),检测了人为因素(ANT)和自然因素(NAT)对近百年(1915—2014年)全球地表气温多尺度变化的影响,归因了温室气体(GHG)、气溶胶(AA)、土地利用(LU)等不同人为因素对全球地表气温长期变化的相对贡献及南北半球差异.结果显示,近百年来人为因素引起的全球陆地实际增温约为1.1℃(0.8℃~1.3℃),对南北半球的贡献则分别约为0.7℃和1.2℃;全球大多数区域人为排放GHG和AA的显著作用在1960—1980年期间就能够被检测到,其中北半球AA的冷却作用要超前于GHG的增温效应;气候系统内部自然变率是调制大多数区域气温年代际(10~30年)及多年代际变率(30~60年)的主导因子,而人为和自然外强迫在全球地表气温年代际变率中的方差贡献约为5%~20%,但二者在北半球尤其在东亚和欧洲中高纬度地区地表气温多年代际变率中的方差贡献可达50%.人为因素强迫可使近50年(1965—2014)极端高温事件的发生风险概率增加3倍,其中北半球发生风险要高于南半球.Quantifying the quantitative contribution of human activities to climate change is a core scientific issue in climate change detection and attribution studies,and it is also an important scientific basis for improving the level of climate change prediction and estimation.Using the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project(DAMIP)from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),we focused on detecting the influence of anthropogenic forcing(ANT)and natural external forcing(NAT)on the multi-scale changes of global surface temperature in the last 100 years(1915-2014).The relative contributions of different anthropogenic factors such as greenhouse gases(GHG),anthropogenic aerosols(AA),and land use(LU)and the differences between the northern and southern hemispheres were also attributed and analyzed.The results show that the significant impacts of GHG and AA emissions began to be detected in most regions of the world between 1965 and 1980,and that the cooling effect of AA in the Northern Hemisphere was ahead of the warming effect of GHG.Human-induced actual global land warming in the last 100 years is about 1.1℃(0.80℃~1.3℃),with a contribution of about 1.2℃to the Northern Hemisphere and about 0.7℃in the Southern Hemisphere.Although internal variability is the main factor for most regional temperature decadal(10-30 years)and multi-decadal(30-60 years)variations,the variance contribution of anthropogenic and natural forcing in the global interdecadal variability of surface air temperature is about 5%~20%.However,the variance contribution of both in the northern hemisphere,especially in the mid and high latitudes of East Asia and Europe,can reach 50%in the multidecadal variability of surface air temperature.Anthropogenic forcing can increase the risk of extreme heat events by about 3 times,with a higher risk in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere.

关 键 词：CMIP6模式 多尺度气温变化 人类活动 检测归因 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]