“双碳”目标下碳减排效应的提升路径——基于fsQCA方法的组态效应研究  

Enhancement Path of Carbon Emission Reduction Effects Under the "Dual Carbon" Targets:A Configuration Effects Study Based on the fsQCA Method

作　　者：张建刚[1] 马原野 ZHANG Jiangang;MA Yuanye(College of Economic & Management, Shandong University of Science and Technology)

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《金融经济》2023年第12期40-50,共11页Finance Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“产业关联视角下重大突发冲击跨行业传导机制及鲁棒投资组合优化研究”(72301162);青岛社科规划项目“银行数字化转型赋能青岛民营经济高质量发展研究”(QDSKL2301107)。

摘　　要：“双碳”目标是我国对全球气候治理作出的郑重承诺,而如何甄别碳减排效应的关键影响因素进而提升减排有效性则是实现该目标过程中需要解决的一个重要问题。本文选取中国30个省、自治区、直辖市为样本,采用模糊集定性比较分析方法(fsQCA)对碳减排效应省际数据进行多因素组态分析,探究我国碳减排效应的提升路径,并进一步对地区异质性进行了分析。研究结果表明,任意因素不能单独作为碳减排效应的必要条件,单一因素也不能独立作用于碳减排效应,而是多因素协同作用于碳减排效应。技术进步能够有效破除经济发展水平、人口密度等客观条件对地方提升碳减排效应的制约。以加快技术进步、调整产业结构、控制人口密度为重点,同时关注经济发展水平和碳交易试点来制定相关的政策,是最为有效的碳减排路径。各地区在碳减排效应提升路径上有着明显的异质性,东、中部地区应加大产业结构调整的力度,西部地区要着力提升技术水平,东北地区则以提升能源效率为根本。The Carbon peakiny and Carbon neutrality goals targets represent a solemn commitment made by China to global climate governance.Identifying the key influencing factors of carbon emission reduction effects and subsequently enhancing the effectiveness of emission reduction are crucial issues in achieving these targets.This study selects samples from 30 provinces,autonomous regions,and direct-administered municipalities in China.It employs the Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis method(fsQCA) to conduct a multi-factor configuration analysis of inter-provincial carbon emission reduction effects.The research aims to explore the enhancement path of carbon emission reduction effects in China and further analyze regional heterogeneity.The results indicate that:No single factor can be considered a necessary condition for carbon emission reduction effects,and a single factor cannot independently affect these effects.Instead,multiple factors synergistically contribute to carbon emission reduction effects.Technological progress can effectively overcome the constraints of objective conditions such as economic development level and population density on enhancing local carbon emission reduction effects.The most effective path for carbon emission reduction focuses on accelerating technological progress,adjusting industrial structure,and controlling population density,while also paying attention to economic development levels and carbon trading pilot projects to formulate relevant policies.There is evident heterogeneity in the enhancement path of carbon emission reduction effects in different regions.The eastern and central regions should intensify efforts in industrial restructuring,the western region should focus on improving technological levels,and the northeastern region should fundamentally enhance energy efficiency.

关 键 词：碳减排效应 “双碳”目标 fsQCA 组态分析 协同驱动 区域异质性 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]