托育服务能否提高适龄生育人群生育意愿?——基于2021年CGSS调查数据的实证研究  

Can Childcare Services Improve the Fertility Intention of the Child-Bearing People?——An Empirical Study Based on CGSS 2021 Survey Data

作　　者：丁仁船[1] 邬登辉 黄院玲 DING Renchuan;WU Denghui;HUANG Yuanling(Center for Urban Management Research,Anhui University of Architecture,Hefei 230601,Anhui,China;School of Public Administration,Anhui University of Architecture,Hefei 230601,Anhui,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽建筑大学城市管理研究中心,安徽合肥230601 [2]安徽建筑大学公共管理学院,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《华南理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第1期145-156,共12页Journal of South China University of Technology(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金“基于生育周期的夫妻生育意愿差异及其生育决策研究”(21BRK044);安徽省新时代育人质量工程项目“生育政策调整下托育服务供给与青年夫妻生育意愿研究”(2022xscx117)。

摘　　要：在普惠托育服务体系建设背景下,使用CGSS 2021年调查数据,对托育服务与适龄生育人群生育意愿之间的关联及影响机制进行了研究。研究发现,托育服务与适龄生育人群生育意愿间呈倒“U”形关系,托育服务对适龄人群生育意愿在阈值范围内具有促进作用。适龄生育人群偏好营利性托育服务,发展型托育服务对生育意愿的促进作用强于普惠型托育服务,但普惠型托育对低收入家庭养育成本改善明显,托育服务需求多元化趋势进一步发展。托育服务通过改善适龄生育人群的生育态度,从而提高其生育意愿。因此,应建立多元化、多层次、多形式的高质量、严标准、高水平的托育服务体系,满足不同生育人群的托育需求,以提高适龄人群的生育意愿。Using CGSS2021 survey data,this paper investigated the association between childcare services and fertility intention of the child-bearing people and its influence mechanism under the background of building a universal childcare service system.The study finds that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between childcare services and fertility intentions of the child-bearing people,which means that childcare services have a facilitating effect on fertility intentions of the child-bearing people within a threshold range.What s more,the child-bearing people prefer profitable childcare services and the developmental childcare service has a stronger effect on fertility intention than the inclusive childcare service,but the universal childcare services can significantly decrease the cost of childcare for low-income families.There is a trend of diversification of demand for childcare service.Childcare services can improve fertility intentions by changing the fertility attitudes of child-bearing people.Therefore,a diversified,multi-level and multiform childcare service system with high quality,strict standards and high levels should be established to meet the childcare needs of different child-bearing people and to improve their fertility intentions.

关 键 词：托育服务 生育意愿 影响机制 

分 类 号：C923[社会学—人口学]