额济纳胡杨黄叶物候景观气象预测方法研究  

Study on Meteorological Prediction Method of Yellow Leaf Phenology Landscape of Populus euphratica in Ejina

作　　者：郭春燕 郝玉珠 王佳 Guo Chunyan;Hao Yuzhu;Wang Jia(Inner Mongolia Meteorological Science Institute,Huhhot 010051,China;Inner Mongolia Meteorological Service Center,Huhhot 010051,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古自治区气象科学研究所,呼和浩特010051 [2]内蒙古自治区气象服务中心,呼和浩特010051

出　　处：《科技通报》2024年第1期17-25,共9页Bulletin of Science and Technology

基　　金：内蒙古自治区自然科学基金(2019MS04007);中央引导地方科技发展资金(2020ZY0019)。

摘　　要：本文利用2011—2021年额济纳胡杨秋季叶色变化观测资料,结合同期气象数据,分析胡杨黄叶物候景观变化特征、不同观赏期与气象条件的关系,并建立相应预测模型。结果表明:近11 a额济纳胡杨黄叶物候景观整体上呈延后趋势,不同年份叶片变色早晚不同,黄叶观赏期持续时长平均为27.7 d,气温是影响胡杨变色早晚和景观持续时长最显著的气象因子。9月气温与最佳观赏期进入日序呈正相关关系,9月气温偏低,会使胡杨叶片转色提前,前期充足的光热条件有利于促进黄叶物候景观的形成。10月低温、大风加速胡杨落叶,导致景观结束期提前。选用相关气象因子建立不同观赏期气象预测模型,通过对2022年实际情况进行预报检验,效果理想,可以业务应用。Different ornamental periods meteorological prediction models of Populus euphratica were established based on the observed leaf color change information and meteorological data in Ejina from 2011 to 2021.The characteristics of yellow leaf phenology landscape variation and relationship between different ornamental periods and meteorological conditions were analyzed,The results showed that the appearance of yellow leaf phenological landscape showed a delayed trend in the past 11 years,and the leaf discoloration time was various in different years.The average yellow leaf period was 27.7 days.Temperature is the most significant meteorological factor affecting the discoloration and the landscape duration time of Populus euphratica.The temperature in September is positively correlated with the entry date of the best viewer period,low temperature will make leaf color turn earlier.Sufficient sunshine in the early months is conducive to promoting the formation of yellow leaf phenology landscape.In October,low temperatures and strong winds accelerate the defoliation,leading to an earlier end of the landscape.Meteorological prediction models were tested in 2022,the forecast accuracy was high and could be applied in business.

关 键 词：胡杨 黄叶物候 景观 气温 气象预测 

分 类 号：P463.221[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]