基于贝叶斯推理的流域污染物通量精准估计研究  

Study on Accurate Estimation of Pollutant Flux in Watershed Based on Bayesian Reasoning

作　　者：魏婧 张亚宁 Wei Jing;Zhang Yaning(Institute of Architecture and Civil Engineering,Yulin University,Yulin 719000,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]榆林学院建筑工程学院,陕西榆林719000

出　　处：《科技通报》2024年第1期106-109,共4页Bulletin of Science and Technology

基　　金：陕西省教育厅专项科研计划项目(23JK0756);陕西省科技厅自然科学基础研究计划项目(2023-JCQN-0594);榆林市产学研合作项目(2019-KJJ131)。

摘　　要：由于流域污染源难以确定,直接影响水体污染物通量估计精度,为此本文提出基于贝叶斯推理的流域污染物通量精准估计方法。根据贝叶斯推理原理识别污染源,确定流域水体地表净流量以及断流量,根据污染物类型、地表净流量以及断流量建立流域污染物的通量估算模型。根据通量估算模型获取污染物的通量回归方程,并通过计算结果实现流域污染物的通量精准估计。实验结果表明:利用该方法开展流域污染物通量估计时的精度高、性能好,估计结果具有可靠性。Because it is difficult to determine the source of pollution in the basin,which directly affects the accuracy of the estimation of water pollutant flux,a method based on Bayesian inference for accurate estimation of water pollutant flux is proposed.According to the Bayesian inference principle,identify the pollution source,determine the surface net flow and cut-off flow of the basin water body,and establish the flux estimation model of the basin pollutants according to the pollutant type,surface net flow and cut-off flow.The pollutant flux regression equation is obtained according to the flux estimation model,and the accurate estimation of the pollutant flux in the basin is realized according to the calculation results of the flux regression equation.The experimental results show that the method has high accuracy,good performance and reliable estimation results when it is used to estimate the pollutant flux in the river basin.

关 键 词：贝叶斯推理 流域污染物 通量估计 通量估计模型 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]