中国向东南亚产业转移研究:特征、动因与趋势  

Research on China s Industrial Transfer to Southeast Asia:Characteristics,Motivations and Trends

作　　者：李嘉众 Li Jiazhong(China Foreign Affairs University Graduate School,Beijing 100037,China)

机构地区：[1]外交学院研究生部,北京100037

出　　处：《中南财经政法大学研究生论丛》2023年第6期18-30,共13页Journal of the Postgraduates of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law

摘　　要：近年来,中国向东南亚产业转移的规模迅速扩大,已成为国际生产网络重构的重要特征。本文通过追踪国际经济循环中增加值的流动,对中国向东南亚产业转移量进行计算与分解,并结合国际产业转移理论分析动因和趋势。实证结果发现,中国向东南亚产业转移量增长迅速,但转移部门单一;阶段分析表明,2009-2014年阶段特征为迅速增长,2015-2019年阶段特征为模式转型,2020-2021年阶段特征为“危”“机”并存。中国向东南亚产业转移的国内动因为中国的产业发展进入新阶段,国际动因为东南亚经济水平提高、产业吸引力增强,此外区域合作与国际经济形势也加速了产业转移进程。未来,中国向东南亚低端制造业的转移将会放缓,而产业转移部门将更加多元化,并且区域合作将成为主要驱动力。In recent years,the rapid expansion of China s industrial transfer to Southeast Asia has become an important feature of the reconstruction of international production networks.This paper calculates and decomposes the volume of China s industrial transfer to Southeast Asia by tracking the flow of value-added in the international economic cycle,and analyses the motives and trends in conjunction with the theory of international industrial transfer.The empirical results find that the volume of China s industrial transfer to Southeast Asia is growing rapidly,but the transfer sector is single;the stage analysis shows that the 2009-2014 stage is characterised by rapid growth,the 2015-2019 stage is characterised by mode transformation,and the 2020-2021 stage is characterised by both“crisis”and“opportunity”.“Opportunities”co-exist.China s industrial transfer to Southeast Asia s domestic motive because of China s industrial development has entered a new stage,the international motive because of Southeast Asia s economic level,industrial attractiveness,in addition to regional cooperation and the international economic situation also accelerated the process of industrial transfer.In the future,the transfer of low-end manufacturing from China to South-East Asia will slow down,while the industrial transfer sector will become more diversified,and regional cooperation will become the main driving force.

关 键 词：国际产业转移 东南亚 多区域投入产出法 

分 类 号：F12[经济管理—世界经济]