海外清洁能源与电网联网项目效益评价体系与实证分析  

Benefit Evaluation System and Empirical Model Results of Overseas Clean Energy and Power Grid Interconnection Projects

作　　者：李华香 郑心语 LI Huaxiang;ZHENG Xinyu(International Cooperation Center of National Development and Reform Commission,Xicheng District,Beijing 100045,China)

机构地区：[1]国家发展和改革委员会国际合作中心,北京市西城区100045

出　　处：《全球能源互联网》2024年第1期114-124,共11页Journal of Global Energy Interconnection

基　　金：全球能源互联网集团有限公司科技项目(海外清洁能源与电网联网项目风险收益评价体系与量化模型研究,SGGEIG00JYJS2100050)。

摘　　要：为应对气候变化和顺应第三次工业革命的大趋势,全球能源架构转型的新趋势将清洁能源发展提升至新高。从项目财务效益、宏观经济效益、社会效益、环境效益及政治效益共5个方面构建海外清洁能源和电网联网项目效益的针对性评价模型;然后采用组合赋权法与物权可拓法两种方法测算不同类型的清洁能源项目或电网联网项目的效益,包括商业类项目与示范类项目;最后以146个国家(地区)作为研究对象,对海外清洁能源与电网联网项目进行效益量化评测。结果表明,加纳、肯尼亚、苏里南、多哥、卡塔尔、斯洛伐克、厄瓜多尔、伊拉克等国家评测结果居于前列。该效益评估模型为建立海外清洁能源与电网联网项目的效益动态跟踪机制提供了一定理论基础,并从综合效益维度为海外能源投资项目的区域选择提供了决策参考。In response to climate change and the trend of the Third Industrial Revolution,the new trend of global energy architecture transformation has elevated the development of clean energy to a new high.This article constructs a targeted evaluation model for the benefits of overseas clean energy and grid interconnection projects from five aspects:project financial benefits,macroeconomic benefits,social benefits,environmental benefits,and political benefits;Then,the combination weighting method and property extension method are used to calculate the benefits of different types of clean energy projects or grid interconnection projects,including commercial and demonstration projects;Finally,146 countries and regions were selected as the research objects to conduct a quantitative evaluation of the benefits of overseas clean energy and grid interconnection projects.The results showed that Ghana,Kenya,Suriname,Togo,Qatar,Slovakia,Ecuador,Iraq and other countries ranked among the top in the evaluation results.This benefit evaluation model provides a certain theoretical basis for establishing a dynamic tracking mechanism for the benefits of overseas clean energy and grid interconnection projects,and provides decision-making reference for the selection of regions for overseas energy investment projects from the perspective of benefits.

关 键 词：海外 清洁能源 收益 政策建议 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济]