边界争端、威胁认知与印越在南海的战略互动态势  

Boundary Disputes, Threat Perceptions, and Current Indian-Vietnam Strategic Interactions in South China Sea

作　　者：王道征 Wang Daozheng

机构地区：[1]武汉大学马克思主义学院

出　　处：《印度洋经济体研究》2024年第1期102-120,162,163,共21页Indian Ocean Economic and Political Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“全面建设社会主义现代化新阶段我国发展环境研究”(项目编号:21ZDA004);国家社科基金一般项目“题目略”(项目编号:22BZZ079)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：面对实力强于自身的国家,选择与他国合作以制衡强国,是行为体的潜在反应之一。在边界争端形势较为严峻的背景下,印度和越南不断强化在南海战略互动和合作,加剧了南海争端的复杂态势。在影响印越南海战略合作的诸多因素中,边界争端和威胁认知是关键变量。边界争端框定两国南海合作政策变化的整体方向,威胁认知左右两国行动意愿强度。当中印和中越边界争端形势均较为严峻时,支撑印越南海靠近的条件较为充分,两国在该区域的战略互动就极易发生;当任意一国和中国边界争端局势有所缓和时,支撑两国南海频繁互动的条件会相应弱化,其在南海的战略合作强度就会有所减弱。通过对中越“中建南事件”和中印“洞朗事件”进行案例比较以及个案内的过程追踪分析,该论点得到了验证。尽管边界争端和共同对华威胁感知是驱使印越强化南海互动的动力源之一,但两国战略重点的不同和高度异质的威胁感知,会增强两国南海战略互动过程的复杂性及效果的不确定性。Facing a country stronger than itself,choosing to cooperate with other countries to check and balance powerful countries is one of the potential responses of actors.Among factors affecting strategic cooperation between India and Vietnam in the South China Sea,border disputes and threat perception are key variables.Boundary disputes frame the overall direction of the South China Sea cooperation policy between the two countries,and threat perception determines the strength of the two countries’willingness to act.When the Sino-Indian and Sino-Vietnamese border disputes are severe,the conditions supporting India’s approach to the South China Sea are relatively sufficient,and the strategic interaction between the two countries in this region is very easy to happen.When the border dispute between any of them and China is eased,the conditions supporting frequent interactions between the two countries in the South China Sea will be weakened accordingly,and the strength of their strategic cooperation in the region will be weakened.This argument has been verified by comparing the China-Vietnam Zhongjiannan incident and the China-India Dong Lang incident and the process tracking analysis within each case.Although border disputes and common threat perceptions toward China are one of the driving forces that make India and Vietnam to strengthen interaction in the South China Sea,the different strategic priorities and highly heterogeneous threat perceptions of the two countries will increase the complexity of the process and the uncertainty of the effect of the strategic interaction between the two countries in the South China Sea.

关 键 词：印越关系 南海问题 边界争端 威胁认知 

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