基于指标修正的AHP-FCEM法长输油气管道风险评价  

Risk Evaluation of Long-distance Oil and Gas Pipeline Based on AHP-FCEM Method with Index Modification

作　　者：李恒[1] 王新慧[1] 丁彦龙 赵金强 吴占稳[1] Li Heng;Wang Xinhui;Ding Yanlong;Zhao Jinqiang;Wu Zhanwen(China Special Equipment Inspection&Research Institute,Beijing 100029)

机构地区：[1]中国特种设备检测研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《中国特种设备安全》2024年第1期69-75,共7页China Special Equipment Safety

摘　　要：针对国内在用长输油气管道使用管理过程中存在的高风险、事故多发、风险不可控的现状,在多方位调研的基础上,提出一种综合了层次分析法(AHP)、区间估计分析理论和模糊综合评价法(FCEM)的评价方法。利用层次分析法的优势建立初步评价体系,接着采用区间估计分析理论对“弱权重指标”进行筛选,优化形成包含5个Ⅰ级指标和25个Ⅱ级指标的最终评价体系,最后应用模糊评价法通过两级运算确定评价目标的模糊隶属度,进而得到管道的风险等级。实例验证表明,该评价方法的结果与实际情况相吻合,可为长输油气管道的科学化管理提供技术支撑。Aiming at the current situation of high risk,frequent accidents and uncontrollability of risks in the usage and management of long-distance oil and gas pipelines in China,an new evaluation method is proposed which combined analytic hierarchy process(AHP),interval estimation analysis theory and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation analysis(FCEM)method after investigating the current situation in the industry.This method uses the advantages of AHP to establish a preliminary evaluation system,then uses the interval estimation analysis theory to screen the“weak weight indicators”,so as to optimize and form a final evaluation system including 5 primary indicators and 25 secondary indicators.Finally,the FCEM is used to determine the fuzzy membership of the evaluation objective by two-level operation,so as to obtain the risk grade of the pipeline.The example shows that the result of this evaluation method is consistent with the actual situation,and can provide technological support for the scientific management of long-distance oil and gas pipeline.

关 键 词：长输油气管道 指标修正 层次分析法 模糊综合评价法 风险评价 

分 类 号：X933.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]