数字经济对我国市域农业经济韧性的影响效应与机理分析——基于系统GMM模型与动态门槛模型的检验  

An Analysis of the Impact and Mechanisms of the Digital Economy on Economic Resilience in Urban Agricultural Areas in China——an Empirical Test Using System GMM and Dynamic Threshold Models

作　　者：徐孝勇[1] 冯潇潇 Xu Xiaoyong;Feng Xiaoxiao(College of Economics and Management,Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 401331,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆师范大学经济与管理学院,重庆401331

出　　处：《重庆师范大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第6期50-63,共14页Journal of Chongqing Normal University(Edition of Social Sciences)

基　　金：2019年度国家社会科学基金一般项目“‘一带一路’倡议的贸易效应及政策研究”(19BJY002)。

摘　　要：基于2011—2019年我国277个市域农业的面板数据,运用反事实方法科学测度了其经济韧性水平,并借助系统GMM模型、中介模型和动态门槛模型等方法,实证检验了数字经济对市域农业经济韧性的影响效应及作用机理。研究发现:数字经济显著增强了市域农业经济韧性,这一结论经一系列稳健性检验后仍能成立;机制分析结果表明,农业资本深化是数字经济提升市域农业经济韧性的重要路径。异质性分析表明,在东部、中部、西部地区和人力资本水平较高的地区,数字经济对市域农业经济韧性的影响效应更为显著,而对东北部地区的提升效应则不显著。动态门槛检验进一步揭示,数字经济对市域农业经济韧性的影响呈现边际递增的非线性特征,当数字经济发展水平越过特定门槛值(0.147)时,数字经济对市域农业经济韧性的促进作用显著增强。Utilizing panel data from 277 urban areas in China spanning from 2011 to 2019,this study scientifically measures the level of economic resilience in the agricultural sector through counterfactual methods.Employing the system GMM model,mediation model,and dynamic threshold model,it empirically tests the impact and mechanism of the digital economy on the economic resilience of urban agriculture.The findings reveal that the digital economy significantly enhances the economic resilience of urban agriculture,a conclusion which remains robust after a series of stability tests.Mechanism analysis indicates that the deepening of agricultural capital is a critical pathway through which the digital economy improves the economic resilience of urban agriculture.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the effect of the digital economy on economic resilience is more pronounced in the eastern,central,and western regions,as well as in areas with higher levels of human capital,whereas its enhancement effect is not significant in the northeastern region.Dynamic threshold tests further reveal a marginally increasing non-linear characteristic in the impact of the digital economy on the economic resilience of urban agriculture.Specifically,when the level of digital economy development crosses a specific threshold value(0.147),its role in promoting economic resilience is significantly strengthened.

关 键 词：数字经济 市域农业经济韧性 农业资本深化 系统GMM模型 动态门槛 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]