限购政策对我国房地产上市企业杠杆率的影响  

The impact of purchase restriction policy on deleveraging oflisted real estate enterprises in China

作　　者：马子红[1] 周璟泽 MA Zi-hong;ZHOU Jing-ze(School of Economics,Yunnan University,Kunming 650500)

机构地区：[1]云南大学经济学院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《云南民族大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第1期123-132,共10页Journal of Yunnan Minzu University:Natural Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目(22FJLB024);云南省高等教育本科教学成果立项培育项目(CY22622107);云南大学2022年教育教学改革研究项目重点项目(2022Z04).

摘　　要：完善住房市场体系是国民经济中的重要议题,限购政策作为政府稳定和调节房地产市场的主要手段,对房地产企业以及住房市场体系建设均有重要而深远的影响.利用2008—2013年与2015—2021年上市房地产上市企业的相关数据,通过构建强度双重差分模型实证分析了两轮限购政策对房地产上市企业杠杆率的影响及其作用路径.结果表明:限购政策显著降低了房地产上市企业的杠杆率,但第二轮限购政策的效果不显著;对债务期限结构进行区分后,发现第一轮限购政策对房地产上市企业短期杠杆率的抑制作用更加明显;异质性分析表明:限购政策显著降低了行政级别最高的直辖市房地产上市企业的杠杆率,且对非国有房地产上市企业的影响更为显著;经济后果检验表明:限购政策推动了房地产上市企业去杠杆的同时,也抑制了房地产上市企业“脱实向虚”,降低了房地产上市企业的债务违约风险.Improving the housing market system is an important issue in the national economy.As the main means for the government to stabilize and regulate the real estate market,the purchase restriction policy has a significant and far-reaching impact on real estate enterprises and the construction of the housing market system.Using relevant data from real estate listed companies from 2008 to 2013 and 2015 to 2021,this study empirically analyzes the impact and path of two rounds of purchase restriction policy on the leverage ratio of real estate listed companies by constructing a strength double difference model.The results show that the purchase restriction policy significantly reduces the leverage ratio of listed real estate companies,but the effect of the second round of purchase restriction policy is not significant;After distinguishing the debt maturity structure,it was found that the first round of purchase restrictions had a more significant inhibitory effect on the short-term leverage ratio of listed real estate companies;Heterogeneity analysis shows that the purchase restriction policy significantly reduces the leverage ratio of real estate listed companies in the municipalities with the highest administrative level,and has a more significant impact on non-state-owned real estate listed companies;The economic consequences test shows that the purchase restriction policy not only promotes the deleveraging of listed real estate companies,but also suppresses their transition from real to virtual,reducing the risk of debt default for listed real estate companies.This article helps to deepen our understanding of the role of market expectations in policy-making in China,which has certain implications for continuously optimizing China s policy of“housing for living,not for speculation,and implementing policies tailored to the city”.

关 键 词：限购政策 房地产上市企业 杠杆率 强度双重差分法 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]