断点回归方法及应用实现  

Regression discontinuity methods and its application and implementation

作　　者：屈水令[1] 张悦 王琦琦[1] 金承刚[3] 于石成[1] QU Shui-ing;ZHANG Yue;WANG Qi-qi;JIN Cheng-gang;YU Shi-cheng(Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206;Liaoning Vocational College of Finance;School of Social Development and Public Policy,Beijing Normal University)

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心,北京102206 [2]辽宁金融职业学院 [3]北京师范大学社会发展与公共政策学院

出　　处：《环境卫生学杂志》2024年第1期1-7,共7页JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HYGIENE

基　　金：中国疾病预防控制中心青年科研基金(2022A301);国家社会科学基金重大项目课题(20&ZD120)。

摘　　要：目的完整、系统介绍断点回归设计(RDD)原理及统计方法,为其在公共卫生领域应用提供参考。方法在介绍断点回归设计原理基础上,用室内甲醛干预的实例演示了利用Stata软件实现断点回归统计方法的过程,介绍和比较属于参数法的多项式回归和属于非参数法的局部线性回归的分析方法和结果。结果RDD是一种准实验设计,对研究对象没有随机分组,而是选择一个与干预措施有关的变量,根据该变量的取值选择切点划分干预组和对照组。RDD在内部有效性方面优于其他准实验设计,但外部有效性受到一定限制。基于观察性资料的RDD不仅可控制可观测的混杂因素,还可控制无法观测的混杂因素,也更符合伦理道德。在本文实例中,多项式回归和局部线性回归两种分析方法的结果基本一致。结论RDD在公共卫生领域的真实世界研究中有广阔的应用前景,为科学评估干预政策和提供高质量决策依据提供新的思路和方法。Objective To provide a complete and systematic introduction to the principle and statistical analysis method of regres-sion discontinuity design(RDD),and to provide a reference for its application in the field of public health.Methods Based on the introduction of RDD principle,the statistical analysis of RDD by Stata software was demonstrated with an example of formaldehyde in-tervention in indoor air.The analytical method and result of polynomial regression(parametric method)and local linear regression(nonparametric method)were introduced and compared.Results RDD is a quasi-experimental design without randomized grouping of the study subjects.Instead,a variable related to the intervention is selected,and the intervention and control groups are divided ac-cording to a cut-off value determined by the value of this variable.RDD was superior to other quasi-experimental designs in terms of in-ternal validity but showed limited external validity.RDD based on observational information controls not only observable confounders but also unobservable confounders,rendering it a more ethical approach.In this example,polynomial regression and local linear re-gression analyses showed similar result.Conclusion RDD has a broad application in real-world public health research.Our result also provide new ideas and method for scientifically evaluating intervention policies and establishing a basis for high-quality decision-making.

关 键 词：准实验设计 断点回归设计 多项式回归 局部线性回归 效果评估 

分 类 号：R122.2[医药卫生—环境卫生学]