考虑库存风险的服装行业新产品预售策略博弈研究  

Game study on new products’advance selling strategies in the apparel industry considering the inventory risk

作　　者：孙忠锋 卓晨恕 计国君[2] SUN Zhongfeng;ZHUO Chenshu;JI Guojun(School of Business,Putian University,Putian 351100,China;School of Management,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,China)

机构地区：[1]莆田学院商学院,福建莆田351100 [2]厦门大学管理学院,厦门361005

出　　处：《丝绸》2024年第2期106-114,共9页Journal of Silk

基　　金：福建省社会科学基金项目(FJ2022BF031);莆田学院引进人才项目(2021080)。

摘　　要：电子商务时代,服装行业线上销售的退货率居高不下。为缓解高退货率连带的库存风险,部分服装企业采用超长预售策略,在相对较长的预售期内次第发货满足顾客订单。在此现实背景下,文章基于报童模型,探讨商家在正常预售和超长预售中的策略选择,并求解两种策略的最优定价、产量、利润和可行条件。结果表明:当需求不确定性较大且产品残值较小,预售时长在合理的范围内且顾客更愿意等待时,应选择超长预售策略,反之选择正常预售策略;并且,超长预售策略能够显著降低库存剩余风险。研究结论对服装企业的预售决策和库存管理具有一定的现实参考价值。With the popularization of the internet and smart mobile devices,E-commerce has developed rapidly.In 2022,China’s online retail sales accounted for 27%of total social retail sales,among which clothing,shoes and hats were one of the main categories of online transactions.According to a survey by iiMedia Research,the proportion of online clothing consumption reached 62%in 2022,and more and more consumers are accustomed to purchasing clothing through E-commerce channels.However,it is difficult for online businesses to provide physical try-on experiences,and consumers may find their expectation inconsistent with the actual wearing effect,leading to high return rates.The return rate of E-commerce clothing companies is often as high as 30%or more.Due to the characteristics of clothing itself,the value of inventory decreases rapidly over time,and the high return rate aggravates the risk of inventory,which may bring losses to enterprises.To alleviate inventory risks associated with high return rates,some clothing companies have tried an extra-long period advance selling model.By significantly extending the advance selling period and sequentially delivering goods in batches during the advance selling period,clothing companies can use the returns of previous orders to fulfill subsequent orders in the hope of reducing inventory risks.To explore the effectiveness of an extra-long period advance selling strategy in reducing inventory risks,the article constructed a theoretical model based on the classical newsvendor model by taking into account the uncertainty of consumer demand during the advance selling period and the waiting cost associated with their patience,according to the characteristics of the apparel industry.Firstly,the profit functions under normal advance selling and extra-long period advance selling strategies were constructed respectively to solve the optimal output,and the former strategy was taken as a benchmark for comparison.Secondly,the article compared the pricing,production quantity and profits under t

关 键 词：预售 库存风险 次第发货 不确定性 报童模型 退货率 

分 类 号：TS941.1[轻工技术与工程—服装设计与工程]