计及时空波动的电力变压器多维度动态评估模型  

Multi-Dimensional Dynamic Evaluation Model of Power Transformers Considering Space-TimeFluctuation

作　　者：茅晓鹏 潘华 高旭 董加慧 MAO Xiaopeng;PAN Hu;GAO Xu;DONG Jiahui(State Grid EHV Branch,SMEPC,Shanghai 201204,China;School of Economics and Management,Shanghai Electric Power University,Shanghai 200090,China;State Grid Zibo Power Supply Company,Shandong Electric Power Company,Zibo 255000,Shandong Province,China;Zibo Bureau of Statistics,Zibo 255095,Shandong Province,China)

机构地区：[1]国网上海市电力公司超高压分公司,上海201204 [2]上海电力大学经济与管理学院,上海200090 [3]国网山东省电力公司淄博供电公司,山东淄博255000 [4]淄博市统计局,山东淄博255095

出　　处：《电力与能源》2023年第6期565-571,578,共8页Power & Energy

基　　金：上海市哲学、社会科学规划项目“新一轮能源革命下智慧综合能源系统脆弱性分析及优化控制研究”(2019BGL002)。

摘　　要：在分析变压器各类影响因素的基础上,在传统考虑试验监测数据等时间维度评估数据的基础上,引入计及外部环境变化和内部结构变化等空间维度评估数据,针对评估数据的时段变化和结构变化特征建立量化指标,构建了考虑时间和空间因素的多维度评估体系。在构建时空因素波动的评估指标基础上,考虑不同阶段的评估指标对变压器影响程度的变化,提出了基于时间距离和外部空间双重影响的动态权重分配方法,最后采用层次分析法进行指标权重计算,运用属性区间识别进行设备状态评估。算例分析验证了该评估模型的有效性。Based on the analysis of various influencing factors of transformers and the traditional time dimension evaluation data such as test monitoring data,spatial dimension evaluation data are introduced including external environment changes and internal structural changes.Quantitative indicators are established according to the time period changes and structural changes of evaluation data,and a multi-dimensional evaluation system is constructed considering time and space factors.On the basis of constructing the evaluation index of the spacetime factor fluctuation,and considering the change of the influence of the evaluation index at different stages on the transformer,a dynamic weight allocation method is proposed based on the dual influence of time interval and external space.Finally,the analytic hierarchy process is used to calculate the weight of the index,and the attribute interval recognition is used to evaluate the equipment status.The effectiveness of the evaluation model is verified by an example analysis.

关 键 词：电力变压器 多维度评估体系 状态评估 时空波动 动态评估 

分 类 号：TM40[电气工程—电器]