河北省超高压线路一次连续覆冰事件的模拟与诊断  

Simulation and Diagnosis of a Continuous Ice Covering Event on Ultra-High Voltage Line in Hebei Province

作　　者：尤琦 贾小卫 曲晓黎 赵增保[1] 王洁 杨琳晗 YOU Qi;JIA Xiaowei;QU Xiaoli;ZHAO Zengbao;WANG Jie;YANG Linhan(Hebei Meteorological Service Centre,Shijiazhuang 05002l;Key Laboratory of Meteorological and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050021)

机构地区：[1]河北省气象服务中心,石家庄050021 [2]河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室,石家庄050021

出　　处：《气象科技》2023年第6期888-897,共10页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：河北省科技厅重点研发计划项目“导线覆冰和风偏气象灾害精准预警技术研究”(22375405D);河北省气象局科研开发项目“基于改进的Jones电线积冰模型预报预警技术研究”(21ky08)共同资助。

摘　　要：利用1980—2021年河北省142个国家气象站观测资料以及电力部门提供的导线覆冰个例资料,分析了河北省历史导线覆冰空间特征,发现省内南部沿海和张家口东北部主要以雾凇覆冰为主,邢台东北部、沧州东部地区存在少量雨凇覆冰情况。系统分析2015年11月15次覆冰跳闸事故的天气环流形势,造成此次灾害的冷空气由北向南传播,中后期叠加来自西部向东传播的气流;关键区对流层低层存在雪水混合物和明显的风切变,对流层中层存在“负-正-负”的温度异常层结分布特征,热力环流中上升运动为覆冰提供了有利条件。基于气象观测资料,综合考虑导线覆冰增长、维持、消融过程,建立导线覆冰小时级覆冰厚度预报模型。利用覆冰个例进行检验,发现该模型能够较好地捕捉气象条件对导线覆冰过程的影响,能够客观地反映覆冰厚度时空分布特征,为覆冰监测预警提供精细化数据支撑。Based on the observation data from 142 national meteorological stations in Hebei Province and the case data of conductor icing provided by the electric power department,the spatial characteristics of the historical conductor icing in Hebei Province are being analysed.It is found that the southern coast of Hebei Province and the northeast of Zhangjiakou mainly experience rime icing,and there is a small amount of glaze icing in the northeast of Xingtai and the east of Cangzhou.The weather circulation of 15 typical cases in November 2015 is systematically analysed.The cold air which causes the disaster is spreading from north to south,and the airflow moving from west to east is getting superimposed in the middle and late stages.In the key region,there is a mixture of snow and water as well as obvious wind shear in the lower troposphere,and a"negative-position-negative"temperature anomaly stratification distribution in the middle troposphere.The upward movement in the thermal circulation provides favourable conditions for ice covering.Based on meteorological observation data,a prediction model of hourly ice thickness is established,which comprehensively considers the growth,maintenance and ablation processes of wire ice coating.It is found that the model can better capture the influence of the meteorological conditions on the ice-covering process of conductors,and can objectively reflect the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of ice-covering thickness,thus providing refined data support for ice-covering monitoring and early warning.

关 键 词：导线覆冰 环流形势 冰厚预报 模拟 检验 

分 类 号：P427.13[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]