隐私信息供需视域下央行数字货币与现金替换:模型与数值分析  

Central Bank Digital Currency and Money Substitution under the Perspective of Privacy Supply and Demand:The Model and Numerical Analysis

作　　者：黄敏[1] 方显仓[1,2] HUANG Min;FANG Xian-cang

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学经济与管理学院 [2]华东师范大学国际金融研究所

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2024年第1期61-73,共13页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金面上一般项目“人口老龄化与货币政策有效性研究”(项目编号:20BJY243);上海市哲学社会科学规划一般课题“国际金融中心建设中的中国货币政策传导效力及其模式转型研究”(项目编号:2019BJB006)。

摘　　要：本文从隐私信息供需分析出发,通过拆解CBDC与实物现金使用净效用差异阐明社会平均隐私偏好强度与CBDC使用情况的基本逻辑;将社会平均隐私偏好纳入货币搜寻框架构建含隐私因素的货币替代模型,考察社会平均隐私偏好与CBDC替代现金的关系;借助数值分析手段对强保密型、弱保密型和可控保密型CBDC技术进行情景模拟。研究发现,社会平均隐私偏好变化通过商家交易激励影响CBDC和现金的流动性,若商家(消费者)平均隐私偏好更强,CBDC相对现金的比例增加(下降);福利最大化的一种情形是CBDC-现金结构与社会平均隐私偏好强度相匹配且商品均匀分布;可控保密型CBDC在抵御强隐私偏好冲击和福利效应维度占有相对优势;引入可控保密型CBDC后中国情景的最大化社会福利水平最高,一般经济体次之,发达经济体最小。We elucidate the basic logic of the typical societal privacy preference and CBDC usage from the standpoint of privacy supply and demand by deconstructing the net utility difference between Central Bank Digital Currency(CBDC)and physical cash.By including the average societal privacy preference in the money search paradigm,we examine the relationship between the average societal privacy preference and the substitution of CBDC for cash.We apply numerical analysis to simulate scenarios involving CBDCs with high,low,and controllable confidentiality.It has been discovered that changes in the average societal privacy preference affect the liquidity of CBDC and cash via merchant transaction incentives.The CBDC-to-cash ratio rises(or falls)when the privacy preference of typical merchants(or consumers)is stronger.One instance where the CBDC-cash structure maximizes welfare is when the goods are evenly distributed and the CBDC-cash structure meets the average societys privacy preference.Controllable-confidentiality CBDC outperforms the other two CBDC designs in terms of mitigating the impact of strong privacy preferences and the welfare effect.Following the adoption of controllable confidential CBDC,China has the highest maximum social welfare level,followed by general economies,and developed economies have the lowest.

关 键 词：隐私信息供需 央行数字货币 货币替代 支付匿名 

分 类 号：F820.4[经济管理—财政学]