基于GTD的东南亚恐怖活动分类与时空演变分析  

Analysing the Classification and Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Terrorist Activities in Southeast Asia Based on GTD

作　　者：杜树坤 张晶[1,2] 公茂玉 王琳洁[1] DU Shukun;ZHANG Jing;CONG Maoyu;WANG Linjie(Information Engineering University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Collaborative Innovation Center of Geo-Information Technology for Smart Central Plains,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]信息工程大学,河南郑州450001 [2]智慧中原地理信息技术河南省协同创新中心,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《信息工程大学学报》2023年第5期599-606,共8页Journal of Information Engineering University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41301125);国家社科基金重大资助项目(20&ZD138)。

摘　　要：东南亚地区是全球恐怖主义热点地区之一。基于全球恐怖主义数据库(Global Terrorism Database,GTD),使用机器学习的随机森林算法对东南亚恐怖活动进行分类,并利用空间统计方法对各类恐怖活动的时空演变进行分析。研究发现:1)东南亚地区的恐怖活动可以分为暴力恐怖型、宗教极端型和民族分裂型3类,且各类恐怖活动在空间上具有聚集性,空间分布差异较为明显;2)东南亚地区的恐怖活动在时间演变上可以分为3个阶段,总体特征为“前少、中稳、后快”,不同阶段呈现出不同类别恐怖活动特点;3)恐怖袭击的爆发在时空上具有统一性特点,当在时间上处于高发期时,其空间聚集性也较高,反之则较低;4)各类别的恐怖活动时空演化格局与影响因素不同。研究对深入挖掘东南亚恐怖活动的内部分异规律提供科学支撑,对地区反恐、维护国家安全和应对中国“一带一路”建设地缘风险具有重要参考价值。Southeast Asia is one of the hotspots of terrorism in the world.Based on the global terrorism database(GTD),this paper classifies terrorist activities in southeast Asia using random forest algorithm based on machine learning,and analyzes the spatial-temporal evolution of terrorist activities by using spatial statistical methods.The results show that:I)terrorist activities in southeast Asia can be classified into political extremism religious extremism and ethnic extremism and separatism are classified into three categories.All kinds of terrorist activities are clustered in space and their spatial distribution is obviously different.2)The temporal evolution of terrorist activities in southeast Asia can be divided into three stages.The overall characteristics are less in the early stage,stable in the middle and fast in the later stage,and different stages show the characteristics of different types of terrorist activities.3)The outbreak of terrorist attacks has the characteristics of unity in time and space.4)The spatial-temporal evolution pattern and influencing factors of all kinds of terrorist activities are different.

关 键 词：东南亚 恐怖活动分类 随机森林 时空演变 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]