考虑海军护航行为的海盗袭击风险预测与因素识别  

Pirate attack risk prediction and factor analysis considering naval escort behavior

作　　者：范瀚文 吕靖 常征 FAN Hanwen;LÜJing;CHANG Zheng(School of Transportation Engineering,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输工程学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2023年第12期4363-4369,共7页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71974023);国家社科基金重大研究专项基金项目(19VHQ012)。

摘　　要：为科学预测海盗袭击可能性,维护海上运输通道安全,基于贝叶斯网络与博弈理论构建了两阶段风险预测-博弈模型。在第一阶段,运用贝叶斯网络(Bayesian Networks,BN)理论构建海军护航背景下海盗袭击事件风险预测模型,以国际海事组织公布的海盗袭击统计报告实现贝叶斯网络的参数训练,采用期望最大化算法(Expectation-Maximization,EM)弥补了部分统计数据缺失的缺陷,并引入灵敏度分析方法对模型进行准确性验证。在第二阶段,运用纳什均衡理论刻画了海军与海盗群体的博弈关系,考虑到博弈双方收益的不确定性,引用期望收益方法构造博弈支付矩阵。结果表明:海盗袭击事件受到海盗袭击成本、海盗袭击失败损失、海盗群体劫持船只成功率的影响;海盗袭击事件呈现春夏季节高发、秋冬季节减弱的波动性变化趋势;同时,随着海盗袭击成本的增加,船舶年龄相对于船舶尺寸对海盗发动袭击的影响更为显著。To scientifically predict the possibility of pirate attacks and maintain the safety of maritime transport channels,a two-stage risk prediction model based on Bayesian network and Game theory is constructed to identify the key factors affecting the attack of pirate groups under the support of naval escorts.In the first stage,the Bayesian Network(BN) theory is used to build the pirate attack risk prediction model under the support of naval escort.Statistical reports published by the Piracy and Armed Robbery module from the International Maritime Organization(IMO) were collected to realize the parameter training of the Bayesian network.In addition,the deficiency of statistical data is compensated by using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm(EM),and the sensitivity analysis method is also introduced to verify the accuracy of the model.In the second stage,the Nash equilibrium theory is used to describe the game relationship between the Navy and the Pirate Groups.Considering the uncertainty of the benefits of both sides of the game,the expected revenue method is used to construct the game payment matrix.By changing the state of the root nodes in BN,the probability of successful pirate attacks in different scenarios can be obtained,which effectively makes up for the deficiency of hypothetical parameter analysis in traditional game analysis.Later,by analyzing the attack strategies of pirate groups under different attack costs,this paper explores the main factors affecting pirate attacks.The results show that the pirate attacks are affected by the cost of pirate attacks,the loss of pirate attack failure,and the success rate of Pirate Groups hijacking ships.Pirate attacks show a fluctuating trend of high incidence in spring and summer and weakening in autumn and winter.Besides,with the increase in pirate attack cost,ship age plays a more significant influence on piracy attacks.

关 键 词：公共安全 交通运输安全工程 因素识别 贝叶斯网络 海盗袭击 博弈理论 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]