基于改进SLIM方法的管制移交人误概率预测  

Human error probability prediction of handover action of control based on improved SLIM method

作　　者：黄娟 甘旭升[2] 吴亚荣[2] 杨芮 HUANG Juan;GAN Xusheng;WU Yarong;YANG Rui(Xijing University,Xi'an 710123,China;Air Traffic Control and Navigation College,Air Force Engineering University,Xi'an 710051,China)

机构地区：[1]西京学院,西安710123 [2]空军工程大学空管领航学院,西安710051

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2023年第12期4417-4424,共8页Journal of Safety and Environment

摘　　要：基于模糊有序加权平均算子(Fuzzy Ordered Weighted Averaging Operator,FOWA)对成功似然指数法(Success Likelihood Index Methodology,SLIM)进行了改进,实现了对管制移交人误概率实施定量评估的目的。相比SLIM基本方法,改进方法可使评估过程更符合人的模糊判断特性,还能显著提升评估效率,在数据处理过程中及时过滤不良的判断信息。通过实际应用中的对比分析可知,虽然两种方法均能得出管制移交人误概率,但改进SLIM方法对专家知识的挖掘更充分。使用Delphi法对管制移交过程中的人误行为触发概率可能性进行排序,排序结果与改进SLIM方法一致度更高,由此验证了改进SLIM方法的优势与可行性。Due to the lack of statistical data,the risk assessment and control of human errors of Air Traffic Control(ATC) are inaccurate and difficult.A method is needed to carry out quantitative analysis of human error behavior and provide data support for risk control.In this regard,a quantitative analysis model of human error behavior is constructed based on Success Likelihood Index Methodology(SLIM) to quantitative analyze human error actions in the absence of data support.SLIM can carry out quantitative evaluation of human error actions with the help of expert knowledge in the absence of data support.However the SLIM method does not make full use of expert knowledge,and there is a lack of comparison between human error actions.The final probability value is easy to be affected by the Performance Shaping Factors(PSFs) weight vector and deviates greatly from the actual situation.In addition,although the weight sorting vector formed based on AHP method can truly reflect the triggering possibility of all kinds of human error actions,the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) judgment matrix can not well fit the fuzzy characteristics of human decision-making,and it will increase a lot of extra work and reduce the evaluation efficiency when the consistency is not up to standard.The improved SLIM method based on Fuzzy Ordered Weighted Averaging Operator(FOWA) algorithm is not only more in according with people's judgment characteristics but also significantly improves the evaluation efficiency and filters bad judgments in time in the process of data processing.Both algorithms can quantitatively analyze the human error actions of control transfer and obtain the probability.By comparing and analyzing the evaluation results of the two algorithms combined with the Delphi method,it can be seen that the human error probability value formed by the improved SLIM is closer to reality,and can provide reliable data support for risk evaluation and management in practical work.

关 键 词：安全工程 成功似然指数法(SLIM) 管制移交 人为差错 模糊有序加权平均算子(FOWA) 风险评估 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]