欠发达城市工业碳排放的时空演变及脱钩效应——以广西地市为例  

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Decoupling Effects of Industrial Carbon Emissions in Underdeveloped Cities:A Case Study of 14 Cities in Guangxi

作　　者：曹金华 周小勇 章玲[1] Cao Jinhua;Zhou Xiaoyong;Zhang Ling(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China;College of Management,Guilin University of Aerospace Technology,Guilin 541004,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京211106 [2]桂林航天工业学院管理学院,广西桂林541004

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2023年第22期211-220,共10页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“信息通信技术的碳排放效应研究:时空特征、转移路径与驱动因素”(72064005);广西自然科学基金项目“信息通信技术开发应用的节能减排效应测度、机制与影响因素”(2020GXNSFAA159041);桂林航天工业学院基金项目“广西能源消费与经济增长的关系研究”(XJ20KT26)。

摘　　要：探索欠发达城市工业碳排放时空演变及脱钩效应,与发达城市形成对照,有利于认识城市工业碳排放特征规律,引导城市工业碳排放有序脱钩发展。以广西14个地市为例,利用2001—2021年有关统计年鉴中城市能源消费、工业产品产量等统计数据,核算其工业碳排放相关指标、分析演变趋势,在此基础上构建工业碳排放Tapio脱钩模型和LMDI分解模型,揭示工业发展与碳排放的脱钩效应及驱动因素。结果表明:2000—2020年广西各市工业碳排放的时空演变与城市产业结构密切相关,呈现“重点突出、多点发散”演变态势,基础较好型、发展进步型城市碳排放量明显高于基础薄弱型城市,发展进步型城市碳排放强度明显高于基础较好及基础薄弱型城市;工业碳排放脱钩状态从以扩张连接、负脱钩为主向弱脱钩、强脱钩演化,发展进步型、基础较好型、基础薄弱型城市分别主要表现为扩张负脱钩、弱脱钩和强脱钩;能源强度效应对基础较好型、基础薄弱型城市工业碳排放脱钩主要起促进作用,对发展进步型城市主要起抑制作用;科技创新效率提升有效推动基础较好型城市工业碳排放脱钩,而科技创新水平提升则有助于发展进步型、基础薄弱型城市工业碳排放脱钩。基于实证结论,提出加大科技创新投入、提高科技创新水平,优化科技资源配置、提升科技创新效率等推动欠发达城市工业碳排放脱钩发展的政策建议。Exploring the spatial and temporal evolution and decoupling effect of industrial carbon emission in less developed cities,compared with developed cities,is conducive to understanding the characteristics and laws of urban industrial carbon emission and guiding the orderly decoupling development of urban industrial carbon emission.Taking 14 cities in Guangxi Province as an example,this paper uses the statistical data of urban energy consumption and industrial product output in the statistical yearbook of 2001-2021 to calculate the related indicators of industrial carbon emission and analyzes its evolution trend.On this basis,the Tapio decoupling model and LMDI decomposition model are constructed to reveal the decoupling effect and driving factors of industrial development and carbon emission.The results indicate that the spatial and temporal evolution of industrial carbon emissions in Guangxi cities from 2000 to 2020 is closely related to the urban industrial structure,presents the evolution trend of"prominent focus,multi-point divergence",while the carbon emission of cities with good foundation and progressive development is significantly higher than that of cities with weak foundation,and the carbon emission intensity of progressive cities is significantly higher than that of cities with good foundation and weak foundation;the state of industrial carbon emission decoupling has evolved from expansion and negative decoupling to weak and strong decoupling,among them,the cities with progressive development type,good foundation type and weak foundation type are mainly manifested as expansion and negative decoupling,weak decoupling and strong decoupling respectively;the energy intensity effect mainly plays a major role in promoting the decoupling of industrial carbon emission in the cities with good foundation and weak foundation,and mainly plays a major role in inhibiting the development of progressive cities;the improvement of the efficiency of scientific and technological innovation effectively promotes the decoupli

关 键 词：欠发达城市 工业碳排放 脱钩效应 时空格局 Tapio模型 LMDI分解模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F204[文化科学] G301