新一轮户籍改革的劳动力城乡再配置效应:理论机制与经验证据  

The Impacts of New-round Hukou Reform on Rural-urban Migration:Theoretical Mechanisms and Empirical Evidence

作　　者：安磊 鄢伟波 AN Lei;YAN Weibo(School of Economics and Business Administration,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400044,China;School of Public Finance and Taxation,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China;Innovation and Talent Base for Income Distribution and Public Finance,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400044 [2]中南财经政法大学财政税务学院,湖北武汉430073 [3]中南财经政法大学收入分配与现代财政学科创新引智基地,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2024年第1期45-59,共15页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“新型城镇化进程中户籍改革的劳动力区域再配置效应:动力机制、经济影响与政策优化研究”(72203028);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金西部和边疆地区项目“新型城镇化建设与人口迁移格局演化:特征、机理、影响与政策优化研究”(22XJC790001);中央高校基本科研业务费项目“城市落户门槛阶梯式降低对农业转移人口市民化的影响研究”(2023CDSKXYJG007)。

摘　　要：在中国人口红利机会窗口逐步缩窄背景下,需要对新一轮户籍改革的劳动力城乡再配置效应进行评估。通过构建一个劳动力多元化流动决策的分析框架,阐释户籍改革影响劳动力城乡再配置的理论机制,并基于2012—2018年中国家庭追踪调查数据进行实证分析。研究发现:新一轮户籍改革显著促进了农村劳动力向城市转移,与未放开户籍管制的城市相比,放开落户限制城市持有农业户口且在农村地区就业的劳动力减少了3.4%,该效应可进一步分解为持有非农户口劳动力比重增加1.9%,流动人口比重增加1.5%;户籍改革引致的落户门槛降低和公共服务均等化,在降低迁徙成本的同时提高了迁徙收益,促进了劳动力城乡间的再配置;城市财政压力、户籍所在地的农地价值、迁徙的心理与社会融入成本以及不稳定就业均会对户籍改革的劳动力城乡再配置效应形成制约。拓展性分析表明,城市间落户政策差异引致的劳动力城乡再配置会进一步扩大特大城市与其他城市人力资本差距。因此,应进一步深化户籍制度改革,降低一线城市落户门槛,同时促进基本公共服务均等化,充分释放劳动力城乡再配置潜力。In economies experiencing continuous growth in the working-age population and a declining dependency ratio,the population structure plays a crucial role in driving rapid economic growth and unlocking a demographic dividend.However,as China’s population ages,the unlimited labor force supply diminishes,resulting in the waning of the demographic dividend.Effectively reallocating the labor force between urban and rural areas is imperative to maximize China’s demographic dividend.Nevertheless,institutional barriers,such as urban-rural labor market segmentation due to the household registration system and disparities in public service accessibility,hinder the free allocation of labor resources between these areas.Against this backdrop,this study investigates the impact of the new-round Hukou reform on labor force reallocation,holding significant theoretical and practical value.The research constructs an analytical framework for labor migration decision-making,revealing the theoretical mechanisms through which Hukou reform influences rural-urban migration.Subsequent empirical analysis,based on China Family Panel Studies data from 2012 to 2018,demonstrates that the Hukou reform significantly promotes rural labor migration to cities.After the policy shock,the proportion of rural labor with rural Hukou decreases by 3.4%in treatment cities compared to control cities,equivalent to a 1.9%increase in urban Hukou labor and a 1.5%increase in city migrants.The Hukou reform lowers the household registration threshold and equalizes access to public services,reducing migration costs and increasing migration benefits,thereby facilitating labor force reallocation between urban and rural areas.However,constraints such as urban fiscal pressures,hometown agricultural land value,psychological and social integration costs,and unstable employment can impede the labor force reallocation effects of Hukou reform.In addition,the labor reallocation effect caused by the Hukou reform leads to the differentiation of human capital between mega c

关 键 词：户籍改革 城乡劳动力转移 迁徙成本 迁徙收益 人力资本 

分 类 号：D631.42[政治法律—政治学] F249.2[政治法律—中外政治制度]