中国家庭能源转型的环境—健康—低碳效益及经济成本  

Air Quality,Public Health,and Low Carbon Co-benefits and Economic Costs of Household Energy Transition in China

作　　者：刘泓汛 陈佳琪 彭千芸 李江龙 LIU Hongxun;CHEN Jiaqi;PENG Qianyun;LI Jianglong(School of Economics and Finance,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710061,China)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2024年第1期88-103,共16页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“北方地区清洁取暖的成本困境与长效机制:行为选择与政策引导”(72273102);研究阐释党的十九届六中全会精神国家社会科学基金重点项目“实现碳达峰碳中和目标的路径优化、政策引导与风险管控研究”(22AZD096);陕西省社会科学基金项目“‘双碳’目标下陕西省能源·环境·经济(3E)协调发展路径研究”(2023D002)。

摘　　要：家庭能源绿色低碳转型是一个关系到中国数亿居民福祉且待妥善解决的问题。基于中国健康与养老追踪调查数据研究发现,使用天然气或电力替代散煤等固体燃料能显著降低暴露人群慢性阻塞性肺疾病、心脏病和中风等疾病的患病概率。在此基础上,以陕西省家庭能源转型为例,利用患病概率估计值测算居民健康改善带来的环境效益,同时考虑温室气体减少的低碳协同效益以及转型的经济成本,全面评估三种家庭能源清洁转型方式的净效益。结果表明,基于陕西省的电力结构和能源价格等现状,三种转型方式的净效益均为负,不同转型方式的负效益程度具有明显差别。为了加快家庭部门实现清洁能源转型,短期内需要政府通过提供补贴等方式引导支持居民采用高效的用能设备,同时加快天然气市场完善和电力部门清洁低碳化转型。Over an extended period,the household sector has heavily relied on energy consumption,particularly solid fuels like coal,resulting in significant environmental and health consequences.This outdated energy utilization approach has severely contaminated residents’living environments,posing a substantial threat to their health,and significantly contributing to air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions through widespread decentralized coal combustion.Addressing these challenges necessitates a transition away from the extensive rural heating model.However,there is a critical research gap in quantitatively assessing the economic costs and benefits of different transition pathways,especially considering the specific context of Chinese household energy consumption and transition scenarios.This gap is pivotal in shaping effective government and household transition strategies.Utilizing data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS),this study reveals that substituting solid fuels like coal with natural gas or electricity can significantly reduce the probability of individuals suffering from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease,heart diseases,stroke,and related ailments.Leveraging the case of household energy transition in Shaanxi Province,we assess the environmental benefits resulting from improved resident health,while also considering the additional benefits of reduced carbon emissions and the economic costs associated with this transition.Our study comprehensively assesses the net benefits associated with three transition pathways:“coal to gas”,which replaces coal heaters with wall-mounted natural gas heaters,“coal to electricity with heat pumps”,which replaces coal heaters with air source heat pumps,and“coal to electricity with resistance heaters”,which replaces coal heaters with resistance heaters with thermal storage.Results indicate that,given the current state of electricity generation and energy prices in Shaanxi,all three transition pathways result in negative net benefits.H

关 键 词：家庭能源转型 减污降碳 公共卫生健康 成本—效益分析 “双碳” 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济] X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]