轨道交通开通运营对出租车的影响效果研究  

Research on the Effect of Rail Transit Operation on Taxi

作　　者：刘涵 王萌萌 张春勤[1] 李金培 LIU Han;WANG Meng-meng;ZHANG Chun-qin;LI Jin-pei(School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Zhejiang Sci-Tech University,Hangzhou 310018;School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Chemical Technology,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江理工大学建筑工程学院,杭州310018 [2]北京化工大学经济管理学院,北京100029

出　　处：《物流工程与管理》2024年第2期70-76,50,共8页Logistics Engineering and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71901196,72274178)资助。

摘　　要：文中主要从出租车保有量的角度来探讨轨道交通与出租车的竞合关系。选取2010-2020年收集的中国240座城市的面板数据(包括城市规模、基础设施水平、经济和政府财政等)作为数据来源,将“轨道交通开通”这一措施看作准自然实验,通过倾向得分匹配(PSM)筛选出处理组和对照组后,采用多时点双重差分法(Time-varying DID)实证检验了轨道交通开通对出租车的影响效果。结果表明,轨道交通开通显著增加了出租车保有量;同时,轨道交通的线路运营规模与出租车数量之间表现出显著的正相关。这种影响在中国东部和中西部呈现出明显的差异。研究结论揭示了轨道交通对出租车的影响规律,对交通管理者制定相关政策具有参考意义。文中基于结论对轨道交通及出租车的发展提出的建议有望促进轨道交通与出租车的融合发展。This study primarily aims to investigate the competition and cooperation between rail transit and taxi from the number of taxis.The panel data(including city size,infrastructure level,economic indicators,and government finances,etc.)of 240 cities in China collected from 2010 to 2020 are selected as the data source,and the“deployment of rail transit”is regarded as a quasi-natural experiment.After screening the treatment and control group by the propensity score matching,the Time-varying Differences in Differences approach is used to evaluate the effect of the deployment of rail transit on taxis.The results indicate that the deployment of rail transit significantly increases the number of taxis in operation.Furthermore,there is a positive and significant correlation between the scale of rail transit and the number of taxis.Notably,this impact presents significant differences between the East and Central/West of China.The findings of the study elucidate the impact of rail transit on the taxi industry,offering valuable insights for policymakers in the transportation sector.Based on the findings of the analysis,recommendations are proposed to promote the integration and development of rail transit and the taxi industry.

关 键 词：城市交通 竞合关系 PSM-DID 出租车 轨道交通 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]