祁连山排露沟流域径流对气候及下垫面变化的响应  

Response of Runoff to the Changes in Climate and Underlying Surface at the Pailugou Basin of the Qilian Mountains,China

作　　者：牛赟 赵维俊 许尔文 董继业 金铭 任小凤 NIU Yun;ZHAO Weijun;XU Erwen;DONG Jiye;JIN Ming;REN Xiaofeng(School of Geography and Planning,Huaiyin Normal University,Huaian 223300,Jiangsu,China;Gansu Qilian Mountains Forest Eco-system of the State Research Station,Gansu Province Academy of Water Resources Conservation Forest of the Qilian Mountains,Zhangye 734000,Gansu,China;College of Forestry,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730030,China;College of Agriculture and Ecological Engineering,Hexi University,Zhangye 734000,Gansu,China)

机构地区：[1]淮阴师范学院地理科学与规划学院,江苏淮安223300 [2]甘肃省祁连山水源涵养林研究院、甘肃祁连山森林生态系统国家定位观测研究站,甘肃张掖734000 [3]甘肃农业大学林学院,兰州730030 [4]河西学院农业与生态工程学院,甘肃张掖734000

出　　处：《山地学报》2023年第6期799-810,共12页Mountain Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(32060247);甘肃省自然科学基金重点项目(22JR5RG1029);淮安市自然科学研究计划(HAB202159)。

摘　　要：在全球气候变暖和人类活动的共同影响下,中国西北干旱半干旱区水循环变化与水资源再分配正在改变区域生态环境。在长时间序列尺度上,仍缺乏对西北内陆河径流变化机制与特征时空格局的统一认识。本研究以祁连山排露沟流域为试验区,基于量水堰实测长序列径流数据,采用线性回归法、Mann-Kendall、滑动t、Pettitt和累积距平等检验方法,分析排露沟流域1994—2020年径流序列的变化趋势和突变年份;以气象站监测和人工潜在蒸发观测数据为基础,采用Budyko假设水热耦合平衡模型对排露沟流域径流量变化趋势进行归因分析;以固定样地2003—2021年每木检尺数据,采用材积源生物量法,对排露沟流域15个乔木固定样地的1017棵青海云杉的碳密度进行估算。结果表明:(1)1994—2020年排露沟流域径流量波动变化,丰枯交替,但整体呈现增加趋势,2006年径流发生突变,突变后的年平均径流量增加了9.53×10^(4) m^(3),增加率为34.88%。(2)在2007—2020年的突变期,排露沟流域径流对降水、潜在蒸发和流域下垫面参数的弹性系数分别为3.15、-0.70和-0.68,且各因子对径流的贡献率分别为87.92%、19.97%和-7.89%,表明径流量对降水量变化最为敏感,气候因子中潜在蒸发对径流的影响大于流域下垫面的变化。(3)2003—2021年排露沟流域青海云杉平均碳密度为63.09 Mg C·hm^(-2),平均每年增长速率为1.94%。在人类活动干扰较小的条件下,森林植被的碳储量和碳密度变化是引起流域下垫面参数波动的主要原因。研究结果可为流域管理部门制定自然资源保护与水资源合理分配及调用方案提供科学依据,为生态环境保护部门在权衡林水效益方面提供参考。Under the joint influence of global warming and human activities,the change of water cycle and redistribution of water resources in arid and semi-arid areas of Northwest China are changing the regional ecological environment.On a long-term time series scale,there was a lack of unified interpretation of spatial-temporal patterns of runoff variations in inland rivers in northwest China.In this study,it took the Pailugou Basin originated from the Qilian Mountains as case study.It interpreted the measured long-series runoff data collected at water weirs by using linear regression method,Mann-Kendall,sliding t,Pettitt and cumulative distance test methods,etc.,and then the change trend and mutation year of the runoff series from 1994 to 2020 were analyzed.Based on data collected at meteorological stations and artificial potential evaporation observation,it used the Budyko hypothesis of hydrothermal coupling balance model to conduct attributional analysis of the trend of runoff variation in the basin.The carbon density of 1017 Picea crassifolia trees in 15 fixed tree plots in the Pailugou Basin was estimated by using volume source biomass method based on the data from 2003 to 2021.It has following results.(1)From 1994 to 2019,runoff in the Pailugou Basin fluctuated,with alternating of ample flow and low water,but presenting an overall increasing trend.A sudden change in runoff occurred in 2006,and the average annual runoff after the event increased by 9.53×10^(4) m^(2),or an increase rate of 34.88%.(2)In the mutation period of 2007 to 2020,the elasticity coefficients of runoff in the Pailugou Basin to precipitation,potential evaporation and underlying earth surface parameters were 3.15,-0.70 and-0.68,respectively,and the contribution rates of each factor to the runoff were 87.92%,19.97%,and-7.89%,respectively,indicating that the amount of runoff was the most sensitive to the changes in precipitation,and the effect of potential evaporation among climate factors on runoff was greater than the changes in the underlying su

关 键 词：径流变化 归因分析 气候变化 碳密度 祁连山排露沟流域 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]