目标情景下的电解铝行业低碳路径探究——以山西省为例  

Exploring the Low-Carbon Path of the Electrolytic Aluminum Industry Under the Target Scenario-Taking Shanxi Province as an Example

作　　者：姚茜 贾永斌 狄子琛 杨凤玲 吴海滨 YAO Qian;JIA Yongbin;DI Zichen;YANG Fengling;WU Haibin(Institute of Resource and Environmental Engineering,Shanxi University,Taiyuan 030006,China;Shanxi China Aluminum New Materials Co.,Ltd.,Yuncheng 043399,China;Shanxi Yellow River Laboratory,Taiyuan 030006,China)

机构地区：[1]山西大学资源与环境工程研究所,太原030006 [2]山西中铝新材料有限公司,山西运城043399 [3]山西省黄河实验室,太原030006

出　　处：《有色金属工程》2024年第2期128-135,共8页Nonferrous Metals Engineering

基　　金：山西省政府采购项目—山西省重点行业低碳发展路径及政策研究(1499002021CGK01773)。

摘　　要：在“双碳”背景下,铝冶炼行业面临着巨大的减排压力。以山西省某电解铝企业为例,对2021年该企业各环节碳排放进行核算,识别影响电解铝行业碳减排的主要因素。采用情景分析法,对2021-2030年山西省电力结构调整、电解铝低碳技术升级及再生铝应用进行预测,建立电解铝碳排放多因素分析模型,探究在基准情景、政策情景下各控制变量对降低企业吨铝碳排放的影响。结果表明:电力结构变化对该企业温室气体减排量贡献最大,2030年基准情景下减排量可占总排放量的31.63%,政策情景下减排量占总排放量的40.66%;电力结构变化及再生铝占比变量耦合时,减排效果最为显著,2030年政策情景中减排量占总排放量的67.82%;三耦合情况下,该企业碳排放逐步趋于零。In the context of“dual carbon”,the aluminum smelting industry is facing enormous pressure to reduce emissions.This paper takes an electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Shanxi province as an example to calculate the carbon emissions of each link of the enterprise in 2021 and identify the main factors that affect the carbon emission reduction of the electrolytic aluminum industry.Using scenario analysis method to predict the adjustment of power structure,upgrading of low-carbon electrolytic aluminum technology,and application of recycled aluminum in Shanxi province from 2021 to 2030.Establish a multi factor analysis model for electrolytic aluminum carbon emissions,and explore the impact of various control variables on reducing carbon emissions per ton of aluminum for enterprises in benchmark and policy scenarios.The results show that changes in the power structure have the greatest contribution to the greenhouse gas emissions reduction of the enterprise,with emissions reductions accounting for 31.63%of the total emissions under the 2030 baseline scenario and 40.66%of the total emissions under the policy scenario;When coupled with changes in power structure and the proportion of recycled aluminum,the emission reduction effect is most significant,with the emission reduction accounting for 67.82%of the total emissions in the 2030 policy scenario;Under the three coupling situation,the carbon emissions of the enterprise gradually tend to zero.

关 键 词：山西省 电解铝 碳排放 情景分析 低碳路径 

分 类 号：TF821[冶金工程—有色金属冶金]