中国火电行业能源消费碳排放的时空演变特征  

Spatial-temporal Evolution Characteristics of Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption in China’s Thermal Power Industry

作　　者：徐国泉 封士伟 XU Guoquan;FENG Shiwei(School of Business,Suzhou University of Science and Technology,Suzhou Jiangsu 215009,China)

机构地区：[1]苏州科技大学商学院,江苏苏州215009

出　　处：《生态经济》2024年第2期30-38,共9页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“我国低碳供应链发展的市场动力机制及评估研究”(19BGL097);江苏省社会科学基金项目“江苏非均衡发展区域碳排放的时空异质性及跨区域协同减排策略研究”(17GLB026)。

摘　　要：通过构建火电行业Kaya恒等式拓展模型,运用LMDI分解法,从时间维度和空间维度对2010—2020年中国火电行业碳排放变动的时序影响因素和区域差异性进行分解研究,结果显示:就时间维度来看,结构因素中的电力结构效应是抑制火电行业碳排放的主要因素,累计贡献率为-45.54%,规模因素中经济规模效应是火电行业碳排放增加的主要因素,累计贡献率为182.79%。从区域和省级层面来看,中西部地区供电煤耗效应和电力强度效应是火电行业碳排放增加的主要因素,而云南、四川等省份的电力结构效应和宁夏等省份的人口规模效应减排贡献较大。东部地区经济规模效应是火电行业碳排放增加的主要因素。现阶段,应持续优化发电能源结构,缩小火电占比;提高技术效率,实现经济的低碳化发展。By constructing the Kaya identity expansion model of the thermal power industry and using LMDI decomposition method,the temporal driving factors and regional differences of carbon emission changes in China’s thermal power industry from 2010 to 2020 were decomposed and studied from the temporal and spatial dimensions.The results show that:from the time dimension,the power structure effect in structural factors is the main factor inhibiting carbon emissions in thermal power industry,with a cumulative contribution rate of-45.54%.In scale factors,the economic scale effect is the main factor for the increase of carbon emissions in thermal power industry,with a cumulative contribution rate of 182.79%.From a regional and provincial level,the coal consumption effect and power intensity effect of power supply in the central and western regions are the main factors for the increase of carbon emissions in the thermal power industry,while the power structure effect of Yunnan,Sichuan and other regions and the population scale effect of Ningxia and other regions largely contribute to emission reduction.The economic scale effect in the eastern region is the main factor for the increase of carbon emissions in the thermal power industry.At this stage,the energy structure of power generation should be continuously optimized,the proportion of thermal power should be reduced,the technical efficiency should be improved,and the low-carbon development of the economy should be realized.

关 键 词：火电行业 碳排放 LMDI 影响因素 时空演变 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F426.61[经济管理—产业经济]