中国饲料产业发展与养殖业规模耦合格局及驱动因素研究  

Study on the coupling pattern and driving factors of feed industry development and aquaculture scale in China

作　　者：许宇轩 强凤娇 XU Yu-xuan;QIANG Feng-jiao(School of Economics and Management,Shaanxi University of Science and Technology,Xi’an 710021,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西科技大学经济与管理学院,西安710021

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2024年第1期125-130,250,共7页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：陕西省社会科学基金年度项目(2022D034);陕西省哲学社会科学研究专项青年项目(2023QN140)。

摘　　要：为科学评估中国饲料产业与养殖业的协调发展关系,识别驱动耦合协调的主要因素,基于2015-2019年省域面板数据,运用熵值法、耦合协调模型、雷达图、空间可视化表达、线性回归等方法对饲料产业发展与养殖业规模的耦合格局及其驱动因素进行研究。结果表明,(1)中国饲料产业发展呈现“南高北低,东高西低”格局;(2)养殖业规模呈现“四周高、中间低”格局;(3)饲料产业发展与养殖业规模的耦合协调度呈现“东高西低、四周高中间低”格局;(4)近五年大部分省份耦合协调水平无明显提高;(5)饲料产业发展与养殖业规模耦合失调区长期主导因素是畜牧养殖规模,协调区长期主导因素是饲料企业的管理维护能力。因此,政府可通过引导中小型饲料企业联合生产、人才引进等方式促进饲料产业、养殖业协调发展。In order to scientifically evaluate the coordinated development relationship between China’s feed industry and aquaculture industry and identify the main factors driving coupling coordination,based on the provincial panel data from 2015 to 2019,the cou-pling pattern and driving factors of feed industry development and aquaculture scale were studied by using entropy method,coupling coordination model,radar map,spatial visual expression,linear regression and other methods.The results showed that:①The devel-opment of China’s feed industry showed a pattern of“high in the south,low in the north,high in the east and low in the west”;②The scale of aquaculture industry presented a pattern of“high in the surrounding areas and low in the central areas”;③The coupling and coordination degree between the development of feed industry and the scale of aquaculture industry was in the pattern of“high in the east and low in the west,and high in the surrounding areas and low in the central areas”;④The coupling and coordination level of most provinces had not significantly improved in recent five years;⑤The long-term dominant factor in the coupling imbalance area be-tween the development of feed industry and the scale of aquaculture was the scale of animal husbandry,and the long-term dominant factor in the coordination area was the management and maintenance ability of feed enterprises.In view of this,the government could promote the coordinated development of feed industry and breeding industry by guiding the joint production of small and medium-sized feed enterprises and introducing talents.

关 键 词：饲料产业发展 养殖业规模 耦合协调度 时空演化 驱动因素 

分 类 号：F307.3[经济管理—产业经济]