农民工长期居留意愿的年龄-时期-队列效应分析  

Age-Period-Cohort Effects on the Long-term Residence Intention of Rural Migrant Workers

作　　者：杨舒雯 詹韵秋 Yang Shuwen;Zhan Yunqiu(Research Institute of Social Development,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu,Sichuan 611130,China;School of Marxism,Chengdu Technological University,Chengdu,Sichuan 611730,China)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学社会发展研究院,四川成都611130 [2]成都工业学院马克思主义学院,四川成都611730

出　　处：《西部经济管理论坛》2024年第1期1-12,共12页West Forum on Economy and Management

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金“社会融合视角下农民工长期居留意愿及代际差异分析”(JBK2307095)。

摘　　要：农民工是推动中国城镇化的动力源泉。农民工的城市长期居留意愿能在一定程度上反映城镇化质量,对其长期居留意愿水平及变动进行研究具有重要意义。基于2012—2018年CMDS数据,文章使用APC交叉分类随机效应模型分析农民工长期居留意愿在年龄、时期和队列三个维度上的变化趋势。研究发现:(1)农民工年龄对其长期居留意愿的影响呈倒“U”形分布。(2)从时期维度来看,近年来农民工长期居留意愿整体呈下降趋势。(3)从队列差异来看,长期居留意愿呈现出“两高两低”的特征。(4)性别、受教育程度、就业身份等因素具有不同的队列变迁趋势。提升农民工长期居留意愿应注重群体间的差异性,推动农民工融入城市,推动农民工市民化,进而实现高质量城镇化。Migrant workers play a crucial role in driving urbanization in China,and their desire to settle in cities reflects the quality of urbanization to some extent.Therefore,studying the level and changes in migrant workers'long-term residence intentions is highly significant.This paper utilizes CMDS data from 2012 to 2018 and employs Hierarchical APC-Cross-Classified Random Effects Models to analyze changing trends in the aspects of age,period and cohort.The results show that(1)There is an inverted U-shaped curve in migrant workers'intentions for long-term residence as their ages increase;(2)The overall willingness for long-term residence decreases in recent years;(3)The cohort effect curve demonstrates two high sides and two low sides;(4)Gender,education,and job identity are factors that exhibit different cohort changing trends.To enhance migrant workers'long-term residence intentions,the government should acknowledge the differences among groups,promote the integration of migrant workers into urban society,and facilitate their citizenship status to achieve high-quality urbanization.

关 键 词：农民工 长期居留意愿 年龄效应 时期效应 队列效应 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济] F299.21