基于MaxEnt模型预测梅的潜在适生区分布  

Prediction of Potential Distribution of Prunus mume Based on MaxEnt Model

作　　者：陈伊能 刘志刚 于婷 廖海[1] 周嘉裕[1] Chen Yineng;Liu Zhigang;Yu Ting;Liao Hai;Zhou Jiayu(School of Life Science and Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China;Forestry Bureau of Mabian Yi Autonomous County,Leshan 614600,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学生命科学与工程学院,四川成都610031 [2]马边彝族自治县林业局,四川乐山614600

出　　处：《中国野生植物资源》2024年第1期107-113,126,共8页Chinese Wild Plant Resources

基　　金：成都市科技局项目(2022-YF05-01357-SN);中央高校医工结合项目(2682022ZTPY053);四川省中医药管理局项目(2021MS116)。

摘　　要：目的:确定影响梅分布的主要环境因子,并预测当前与未来条件下梅的适生区。方法:收集172份梅分布点的32个环境因子数据,构建MaxEnt模型,筛选影响梅生长的主导环境因子,结合地理信息系统(ArcGIS10.8)绘制梅目前与未来的适生区分布预测图。结果:影响梅分布的主要环境因子有5个(最冷月最低气温、年降水量、最暖季降水量、年温差与最干燥月降水量);其中最冷月最低气温对梅生存概率影响最大,当最冷月最低气温约10.1℃时梅适生概率最大,达到71.47%。模拟当前气候环境下,梅的高适生区、中适生区和低适生区面积分别占全国总面积的7.78%、17.01%与7.73%。目前高适宜区主要分布在广东、广西、四川、云南、贵州、重庆、浙江与台湾地区等省,在SSP1-2.6与SSP5-8.5下,梅适宜面积(潜在高适生与中适生区)在2021至2060年期间,呈现波浪式增加和北移的趋势,分别为当前的101.85%和102.28%。结论:本研究结果可为梅资源的可持续利用,以及梅人工种植的合理布局与区划研究提供科学依据。Objective:To determine the dominant environmental factors shaping the distribution of Prunus mume.To predict the distribution areas of P.mume under current and future climatic environments.Methods:A total of 172 distribution points and corresponding 32 environmental factors of P.mume were collected,and the MaxEnt model was constructed accordingly.The dominant environmental factors affecting the growth were identified,and the current and future distribution map of P.mume was drawn by ArcGIS.Results:There were five main environmental as dominant factors affecting the distribution of P.mume:min temperature of coldest month(bio6),annual precipitation(bio12),precipitation of warmest quarter(bio18),annual temperature difference(bio7)and precipitation of driest Month(bio14),among which bio6 had the greatest effect on the survival probability.When the lowest temperature in the coldest month was 10.1℃,P.mume reached the highest living probability of 71.47%;Under the current climatic environment,the areas of high,medium and low suitable areas accounted for 7.78%,17.01%and 7.73%,respectively,in China.And the high suitable areas were mainly distributed in Guangdong,Guangxi,Sichuan,Guizhou,Yunnan,Chongqing,Zhejiang and Taiwan provinces.Under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5,the suitable area of P.mume(potential high and medium suitable area)moved north and increased wavelike of 101.85%and 102.28%,respectively.Conclusion:The present result could provide basic data not only for the sustainable utilization of P.mume resources,but also for its rational distribution of artificial planting.

关 键 词：梅 最大熵模型 环境因子 潜在分布 未来气候 

分 类 号：R282[医药卫生—中药学]